Rocket Lab: A Parabolic Run Meets a Healthy Pullback
Rocket Lab USA (NASDAQ: RKLB), a leading player in the space infrastructure sector, has been on a tear in 2025. Shares surged to a fresh all-time high of $53.44 last week, with the stock approaching a near-parabolic trajectory on the daily chart.
The explosive rally was driven by a wave of capital rotating into high-growth, high-momentum names, especially those with a clear path to profitability and future catalysts. For Rocket Lab, optimism surrounding its upcoming Neutron rocket and growing visibility on Wall Street helped fuel its vertical move.
The stock had already garnered attention from major firms like Cantor Fitzgerald and Citi, which recently raised their price targets. Retail enthusiasm only added to the momentum as RKLB entered the price discovery phase.
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The Pullback: Time to Worry?With any meteoric rise, the question becomes: when does momentum shift into exhaustion? Shares of Rocket Lab have pulled back more than 10% from their all-time high, currently consolidating around the $45 level. Still, the stock remains up an impressive 84% year to date and nearly 800% over the past 12 months, a staggering return by any measure.
After breaking through long-term resistance in late June and accelerating through $35, RKLB staged a swift run that pushed the Relative Strength Index (RSI) into the mid-80s.
Such an extreme reading rarely goes unnoticed. It signaled an overheated rally and the likelihood of a near-term breather, which is now underway.
However, from a technical perspective, there’s little evidence to suggest the broader uptrend is in danger. The stock appears to be digesting its gains constructively, forming a potential higher low near potential short-term support. With the RSI back to around 70, overbought pressure has eased.
If RKLB can stabilize here and confirm this support level, the trend may very well resume, fueled by strong fundamentals and upcoming catalysts.
Neutron Rocket: A Game Changer on the HorizonMuch of Rocket Lab’s long-term bull case revolves around Neutron, its medium-lift, reusable rocket designed to compete with SpaceX’s Falcon 9. The company has already made substantial progress toward its first launch, with Neutron development facilities coming online and key hardware undergoing testing.
Neutron will enable Rocket Lab to target a broader commercial and government customer base with larger payloads, dramatically expanding its total addressable market.
The company has also made it clear that Neutron isn’t just about launch. It's a cornerstone of a vertically integrated space strategy that includes satellite manufacturing, spacecraft components, and end-to-end mission services. Investors are increasingly viewing Rocket Lab as more than just a launch provider; it’s a full-stack space infrastructure firm.
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Past Catalysts Keep the Narrative IntactThe recent run wasn’t built solely on hype. Rocket Lab’s 2024 performance laid the foundation for its 2025 surge. The company scored key wins, including contracts with NASA, the U.S. Space Force, and commercial satellite providers.
Its Electron rocket remains one of the most reliable small-lift vehicles in the world. With dozens of successful missions under its belt, Rocket Lab has earned its reputation for execution.
Analysts Are Taking NoticeWall Street hasn’t been shy about its enthusiasm.
Analysts continue to raise their targets, citing the growing pipeline, Neutron’s potential, and the strategic shift into space infrastructure services.
Cantor Fitzgerald’s $35 price target already proved conservative.
RKLB smashed through it weeks ago.
And other firms are now revisiting their models in light of the stock’s breakout and the company’s updated roadmap.
Citigroup recently boosted its price target from $33 to $50.
A Parabolic Run Meets a Healthy PullbackThe recent dip in Rocket Lab’s share price is more a function of healthy technical digestion than a change in narrative. For investors with a longer-term outlook, this pullback may present an opportunity, rather than a warning.
The rocket ride may be far from over as long as RKLB continues to hold its trend, build support, and execute on the Neutron vision.
Written by Ryan Hasson
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