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Politics : Politics of Energy
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From: Alastair McIntosh7/18/2015 11:16:39 AM
   of 86356
 
More bad news for the supposed link between warming oceans and stronger hurricanes:

An analysis of long-term relationships among count statistics and metrics of synthetic tropical cyclones downscaled from CMIP5 models

Abstract

In a changing climate, the impact of tropical cyclones on the United States Atlantic and Gulf Coasts will be affected both by how intense and how frequent these storms become. The observational record of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin is too short (AD 1851-present) to allow for accurate assessment of low-frequency variability in storm activity. In order to overcome the limitations of the short observational record, we downscale four CMIP5 models to generate synthetic tropical cyclone data sets for the Atlantic basin that span the interval AD 850 – 2005. Using these long-term synthetic tropical cyclone data sets, we investigate the relationship between power dissipation and ocean temperature metrics, as well as the relationship between basin-wide and landfalling tropical cyclone count statistics over the past millennium. Contrary to previous studies, we find only a very weak relationship between power dissipation and main development region sea surface temperature in the Atlantic basin. Consistent with previous studies, we find that basin-wide and landfalling tropical cyclone counts are significantly correlated with one another, lending further support for the use of paleohurricane landfall records to infer long-term basin-wide tropical cyclone trends.

onlinelibrary.wiley.com

Noteworthy that Michael E. Mann was one of the authors.
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