Charles Plank is the editor of the Golden Touch Newsletter (818 346 2707) and has the following Outlook for 2001:
Ominous Bear Market characteristics have developed during the last four months of 2000, which have also occurred in previous severe bear, recession or Great Depression years during the last 100 years: When the markets declined in each subsequent month during the normally strongest part of the 12 month market year, namely the months of September, October, November and December, there followed at least 6 months of continued market declines. This occurred in 1906, 1917, 1920, 1929, 1930, 1931, 1932, 1937, 1939 and the previous last time in 1941. (Yes! It's been 60 years since a major market has declined successively during the last 4 months of the year.)
What do these statistics mean or signify? If you look at those years, you'll find that the stockmarket is accurately forecasting a continued Bear market trend from January 2001 atleast to the summer months - as a minimum, sometimes at least lasting two plus years. Under such conditions this indicator has had a 100% accuracy for 100 years.
In the years in the 20th Century, when the stockmarket was down for the above four consecutive months, such depressing last quarter statistics have resulted in being very strong and very accurate warning signals that the subsequent months of the following year would continue to reflect strong bearsih characteristics. |
