No, no, BC, deficit doesn’t "support" good times... indeed, eventually it leads to the demise of those good times. The point is that it is rather caused by those 'good times', as people and businesses become increasingly confident in taking on more debt. As a result, debt is correlated with good times. As a Bull progresses, it inexorably builds the foundation for an inevitable Bear.
(This is what I mean by the deterministic nature of waves -g/ng).
Your 'spring' analogy is very good.
I think we are basically saying the same thing, but from different perspectives. My view is that there is not to much of a point in blaming policies or individuals, since we are all just playing a music we haven't written... just actualizing our human nature. When time comes for a reversal, the right ideas and the right leaders will appear – because it will be time for them to appear...
I think that President Regan is a great man, but it didn't hurt to have taken office in 1981, and not 4 years earlier, as he tried to do. George Gilder wrote his supply side book when it was the perfect moment to write such a book. When we hit the air pocket high up at the top, and it was time to implode, such ideas have become helpless. Nothing will work until this great Bear, the great "reality check", will complete its work. |
