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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room
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To: Second_Titan who wrote (6617)2/12/2002 2:56:48 AM
From: GREENLAW4-7  Read Replies (1) of 206249
 
I noticed noone on this board commented about RIG's CC. They confirmed the slow-down that has hit the gulf over last 5 months is spreading QUICKLY to international deep water drilling.

I also picked the same info in TDW's earnings CC. The current rally is again on light volume, and at a time when Crude is GIRATING.

I find it strange to HEAR and READ so much negative news on crude only to see it go from 19 to 21.30 in 3 days!!

I track crude, and correlate its movement to the OSX stocks. Unfortunately when you have SPIKES to the upside as we have the last 3-4 days, the market 85% of the time retraces SLOWER then it went up.

I have no shorts yet, only holding HC, but I am concerned going into the SLOWEST and BEARISH period for the OSX and crude.

If what RIG and TDW confirmed is the trend then 90 OSX may be near term TOP, and we should break the January lows in the coming weeks.

The move in some of these stocks look like a typical FALSE BREAK-OUTS. SII and TDW are good examples. In the past I would have jumped on the long side going into API data, but I just don't get the feeling the trend has turned just yet for the sector.

I did a study over the weekend, and came to the conclusion under the current fundamantals in Nat gas, heating oil, and Crude itself we should have 15-16 crude. The fact we are at the 20-21 range leads me to believe WAR is already factored into this price.

I don't have the fortitude to buy and hold the big boys for now.
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