now that I sold and took my small gain, I am sure she will double or triple from here,
Isn't that how it always is(g)
well, maybe not to that extent.
but we rarely seem to get the exact top or bottom.
But then again, why be greedy, right?
Anyhow, I tend to agree with you also that SEBL has the potential to get explosive if my theory pans out, techs may rally through the summer, setting up an October crash.
Thing is that once again, analysts are selling a second half recovery.
The thing that is different this time; shockingly
I see more people believing it, this time.
Thus I think there is a "buy the dips" mentality floating around right now.
Wall street has succeeded in making most investors give their beloved stocks one more second half.
Blame it on OBL, Saddam, SARS(the next scapegoat)
What ever, stocks got a by on the first half.
However nothing has changed WRT improved earnings; fundamentally things suck.
and in fact, one could argue stocks are more expensive now than last year or the year before
Or even the year before that.
unfortunately for the small time investors
they are usually the last to get in on the party.
However I suppose if J6P is beaten over the head enough times
they will believe it.
it shows how desperate they are to regain what they once had.
What most still don't realize is first and foremost, wee are in a new bull market; but it is in commodities, not tech stocks.
Next, They are getting what(numbers)t to hear.
Let's face it, with the shape of pro forma and continuous reduced expectations how could a company miss earnings?
Seriously, how can a company report like they are with 50-80%+ decrease in revenues? and still look swell when "meeting or exceeding" estimates?
For real earnings we need to look at the SEC filings where they report GAAP earnings.
Until we have a return to GAAP standards instead of pro forma
Things just aren't going to get much better.
Secondly, I don't understand how we can continue to spend money on a corporate and especially personal level- going deeper into debt still- and expect to get healthy?
It's like bleeding out of one arm while pumping it into the other.
We need to stop the bleeding- the spending.
We need to return to a people who save not a country of debtors
And I don't consider investments as savings- no risk is saving.
And with a Fed Funds rate likely to go below 1% before the end of summer
They are punishing the savers.
And Bush today, wow, pushing hard for that tax cut.
Why?
Not to encourage people to save or pay off their debts.
But so they can spend it and create demand for generally useless junk or unneeded upgrades which will hopefully create new jobs, which will allow companies to resume spending and further debt.
Sounds great on paper-
After all one generally needs a job to pay bills or even save.
Maybe it will work, probably not, IMO you can't spend your way out of debt.
Another fallacy is that inflation is low.
I'm not so sure about that.
sure I can buy a DVD player for under $100 bucks
But my food bill is more expensive.
I'm paying more for utilities and gas.
It costs me more when I go on vacation.
People who rent are paying more.
Etc.
All this while cell phones and other such nonessentials are getting cheaper.
That's because companies are getting desperate to generate business.
any business.
So where was I going?
I digressed, my apologies.
Oh yes, rally mode.
With the BTD buzz in the air
I wouldn't be at all surprised to see 1800-2000 on the comp over summer- but I'm not betting on it just yet
and in fact if we are at bottom than I congratulate those who have kept the faith- kudos to you.
And yes, a comp near 2000 would probably translate to SEBL doubling or better from here.
But we'll have to wait and see.
I am still short SEBL and even added more today
I'll add again around mid 9s and then just over 10.
If it breaks out from there I will cover and watch.
Take care.
Oh, and one other question maybe some one on the thread can help me with.
According to Yahoo!, George Shaheen, a director exercised 800K options (granted at 11 CENTS) at $8.51-8.82.- cost of purchase 87K proceeds of sales, same day $6.9 MILLION.
My question is; Is this the same George that left<cough cough> Anderson as CEO to take on the leadership role of Webvan
If it is,
Will anyone speculate or inform me as to Tom's agenda by giving him the position?
And essentially giving him $7 million already for the job. |
