Continued from prior post.
AOL from 10/24 to 10/29..
Subj: Re:Early Earnings
Date: 96-10-24 00:20:29 EST
From: WUmfleet
Just for the record, I thought the earnings release by Ampex was positive,
given the spending they had on moving and litigation, and the large shift in
the product mix that make up their sales.
Some other thoughts that have been running through my head recently:
There is no question in my mind about the LONG-TERM prospects for Ampex. It
is a very solid company that seems to be making a successful transition out
if its older products into its new products for image processing and
high-performance digital storage.
Although this is true, one can't help but get excited about the SHORT-TERM
prospects for keepered media, and what this could do for AXC. No doubt a
major announcement could send the stock sky-high. But is it possible that
they will choose not to make an announcement, and just go ahead and develop
the business quietly?
Even if Ampex does choose to start selling keepered disk platters without
making a big fuss about it, don't they have an obligation to their
shareholders to disclose their business activities? Do you suppose it is
only through required SEC filings that we will learn about these
developments?
Speaking of which, if their 10Q is filed in the same time frame as last qtr,
we should see it in Edgar in the next few days. It will be damn
interesting to see what they say about keepered media in light of the fact
that they have made it clear in their employment opportunities web site
that they are putting together a "Keepered Media Management Team". And what
might be said about a building dedicated to keepered media?
Any thoughts will be appreciated!
Rgds,
--Wayne--
=============================================================
Subj: FindersKeepers
Date: 96-10-24 00:58:21 EST
From: H102548
Man, to state the obvious, I sure hope KM optimism proves founded. If and
when AXC ever starts to mine their patents for revenues it will go from what
is, in my opinion, a good stock to something potentially spectacular. But me
, I'll believe it when the company announces it. As Wayne said this 10Q will
be interesting.Subj: Re:Optimistic Info
Date: 96-10-24 01:00:38 EST
From: WJ0614
??????IBM WILL BUY AXC??????
=============================================================
Subj: Re:Optimistic Info
Date: 96-10-24 07:14:38 EST
From: Brooke295
Why would you post this??
=============================================================
Subj: Re:Optimistic Info
Date: 96-10-24 07:15:28 EST
From: Rbigg2
your dreaming
=============================================================
Subj: optimistic info
Date: 96-10-24 08:02:21 EST
From: QSL Corp
Posts that do not contain facts, but are designed to start rumors (perhaps
even unwittingly) are what give these boards a bad name on occasion.
I have been researching Ampex for the past day or two and like what I've
found. I have not heard anything about IBM contemplating a ACX purchase
however. While there is some speculation that ACX will be purchased by a
competitor or a co seeking entry into the mass storage market, I beleive that
Ampex is not shopping itself around. They've been through a lot in their 50
year history and I can't see Bramson (sp?) giving up controll of what seems
to me to be his baby.
IBM is a competitor in the mass storage market, ( robotic arrays/terrabyte+
area ) and I beleive I read that IBM had worked on some testing with AXC. It
does not seem totally impossible that big blue might want to own some of
AXC's technology. I have seen nor read anything that would make this
anything but wild speculation at best however.
A question:
What exactly does KM technology do? I have read that it increases access
time and capacity of drives. Can anyone offer a technical description?
I'm just getting started on Ampex and do not have a good knowlwdge of their
industry. The above reflects only a few hours worth of my novice research.
Good Luck.
Sean
=============================================================
Subj: Re:Optimistic Info
Date: 96-10-24 08:03:48 EST
From: Steven7373
IS THIS YOUR OPINION ? OR DO YOU HAVE INFO TO BACK THIS STATMENT?
=============================================================
Subj:
Western Digital CEO
Date: 96-10-24 08:26:39 EST
From: Mimbreno
Just saw Western Digital CEO Charles Haggerty on CNBC's "Squawk Box".
Someone got through an e-mail question about the prospects for Keepered
Media. Haggerty responded that he had never heard of KM!! His facial
expression looked like he was genuinely perplexed (but who knows???).
I'm not sure what to make of his statement. Perhaps he's not too involved in
the technical aspect of the company's business.
Did anyone else see this interview? Any other opinions out there about his
statement?
And bravo to the person who got the KM question on CNBC!
=============================================================
Subj: WDC CER says,
? KM !!
Date: 96-10-24 08:46:48 EST
From: PAG6447
My email question to Mark Haines was to ask Haggerty how KM would impact
their business going forward. The question also referred to the ongoing
testing with Ampex.
I too saw the interview and was just as surprised about his response as he
was about the question. My impression was that he was either shocked that he
was being asked the question (like, how do they know about this) or didn't
have any information about what may be going on within the company in this
regard.
Am I mistaken or did I read, much earlier on th e board, a published article
regarding this relationship. I feel compelled to forward it to Haines just
to demonstrate that he was not "mis-informed" as he stated when Haggerty said
he didn't know anything about it.
Peter
=============================================================
Subj: Re:Western Digital CEO
Date: 96-10-24 09:39:08 EST
From: Veetoh
I saw Cnbc and the Chairman of Digital also. Something doesnt seem to be
right here. Once
before when he was on CNBC he was asked this same question. Therefore it
would seem that
he either would have looked into it from the previous time or at least he
wouldnt be
perplexed on being asked the second time.Also with KM being written up in
several
magazines such as Byte and Institutional Investor does it seem likely that a
CEO of a large
Storage Company would not be aware of it?
=============================================================
Subj: Re:optimistic info
Date: 96-10-24 10:25:02 EST
From: HPhill
The buyout rumors are speculation that makes sense to some. If a large disk
drive maker cannot come to terms on a negotiated contract with Ampex well
maybe they could buy Ampex instead. But I don't think there are enough
shares out there to buy enough shares to control the stock. It would have to
be a friendly takeover which would cost more than a hostile takeover.
Keepered Media is a film that is condutive to electricity. A small elecrical
charge in the material somehow enhances the magnetic properties of the
material below without changing or erasing data. Beyond that I don't know
how it works.
=============================================================
Subj: Re:Western Digital CEO
Date: 96-10-24 10:28:26 EST
From: HPhill
Which issue of Byte?Subj: Market Size
Date: 96-10-24 13:03:11 EST
From: H102548
The size of IBM's announced investment in MR heads at least gives us a handle
on the very large market available to successful inroads into hard drive
componenets. A contract of over 500 million would not be that big a deal to
IBM. But to Ampex? It would be gargantuan.So I'm glad they are trying.
=============================================================
Subj:
Great Action
Date: 96-10-24 13:43:30 EST
From: Brooke295
At 2:35 eastern, AXC at $7.75 up .75. What a great day with probably more
up side to come. The hard question is at what price do you add to your
holdings??
=============================================================
Subj: Re:Great Action
Date: 96-10-24 15:49:16 EST
From: S DuffyNYC
Don't know when anyone else should add. But I bought 2000 more at $7.00 this
morning.
Sorry guys. I have no facts .......Just a feeling. (Which for me has worked
just as good if not better than any research I've done on some other stock
purchases.
Good Luck To All!
=============================================================
Subj: Re:Great Action
Date: 96-10-24 17:46:09 EST
From: RRomano617
H102548, Could you explain why keepered and MR, which you said earlier are
competitive technologies? What outside source is there to verify the
performance of keeperd disk? If keepered is very expensive to manufacture
will that limit the potential market. This is to big of a deal to be kept
quiet. Watch the option volume for the first clue!!!!
=============================================================
Subj: Re:Great
Action
Date: 96-10-24 17:49:17 EST
From: GENSTU
Anyone catch CNBC this morning? The CEO of WDC was asked what he thought of
keepering. He responded that he never heard of it.
=============================================================
Subj: Re:Great Action
Date: 96-10-24 18:09:24 EST
From: CARDS080
oh, he heard of it alright. as a matter of fact, they could be the ones (wdc)
to actually us keepered media. i think his reaction was of someone who was
caught totally off gaurd. believe me, he knows what keepered media is, he is
not stupid, only his response was. stay long
=============================================================
Subj: Re:Great Action
Date: 96-10-24 18:31:32 EST
From: H102548
....Western Ceo is possibly still bound by nondisclosure agreement. Damn. I'm
getting caught up in this stock's day to day again. Just hope if it makes
aanother serious run this time it happens after good news and not
before.
=============================================================
Subj: Re:OPTION ACTION!!
Date: 96-10-24 18:32:26 EST
From: Steven7373
Open interest in the Nov. 7 1/2 = 1332 Contracts. Volume Today 611
Contracts.(GOOD DAY)
At Close Bid 3/8...Ask 9/16 High 5/8 Low 5/16.
GO AMPEX!!!!!!!!! GO!
=============================================================
Subj: couple of questions
Date: 96-10-24 21:50:14 EST
From: DThornblad
I am new to Ampex, but enthusiastic! I have a couple of basic info questions
for the new and ignorant: How old is KM? Does Ampex own all the patents?
Does anyone on this board have access to info on option activity increases in
the last few days, since end of quarter (plain English, if possible!)? In
the absence of public announcements, what is driving this price up in the
last 2 days? Any guesses out there?
This board is full of excellent info and opinions. Thanks to all, and go
Ampex!!
Dean
=============================================================
Subj: Re:couple of questions
Date: 96-10-24 22:01:44 EST
From: HPhill
Read posts in graveyard #2 folder! I think there is a post in this folder on
the patents if not it is one of the last posts in the #2 folder. They own
all of the patents its their invention!
=============================================================
Subj: Re:UP
Date: 96-10-24 22:41:02 EST
From: JEason9747
My own humble opinion as to why the stock is on the move is the following:
Net quaterly earnings increase of 45%.
The increase in revenues from the DST storage line exceeded 100% for the last
quarter.
The latest generation DST-810 was recently introduced, and software support
should be available in the next couple of months. The sales ramp on this
could be spectacular.
The stock is only selling at 14 times next years earnings.
All this and I havn't even mentioned KM yet. A technical article was
published by a Rice professor and two employees of AXC detailing the benefits
of KM. This will appear as the cover story in the October issue of Data
Storage. If anyone has acess to this magizine I am sure we would all
appreciate an update. I picked the info up about the article from Red Chip.
John,
=============================================================
Subj: Price Mvmt
Date: 96-10-24 23:29:10 EST
From: FlyingT
Seems like we are getting a bounce off the bottom of a trading range the last
couple of days. Looks like near term we could go to resistance in the 8 to 8
1/4 range. Anyone else see this??
=============================================================
Subj: Re:Price Mvmt
Date: 96-10-24 23:46:21 EST
From: Goldtip777
It is only a matter of time when it breaks out into the teens. Technical
says targets is $9.25, when it breaks $8-5/8. The momemtum is coming back,
hope it finally breaks out of the trading range. I am a true believer in
their technology, KM. Saw a few giant blocks buying during intraday trading.
Remember the takeover rumor in Business Week. Just wait and see, the rumor
will become reality.
v
Subj: Re:Price Mvmt
Date: 96-10-25 07:14:56 EST
From: Brooke295
It's important that the 3Q earnings are out of the way. The fear of an
earnings disaster is gone. Investors can now concentrate on the KM and
takeover hype. Bias will now be on the upside.....the heavy volume is great.
My personal opinion is that AXC will become a great trading stock for the
next 2 months, with bias on the upside.....I wouldn't be afraid to take some
profits in the 8 to 8.5 range and buy back in the low 7's.
Brooke295
=============================================================
Subj: Re:UP
Date: 96-10-25 18:04:18 EST
From: Veetoh
In Data Storage and the CEO of W.D. never heard of it?
=============================================================
Subj: Re:UP
Date: 96-10-25 19:58:07 EST
From: ThfOfHrts
the non disclosure is still in effect which means we are not supposed to know
who is testing.
=============================================================
Subj: Re:OPTION ACTION
Date: 96-10-25 20:21:08 EST
From: Steven7373
NOV. 7 1/2 CALLS, OPEN INTEREST 1724.
TODAY'S VOL. 590 BID 3/8 ASK 1/2 {21 DAYS LEFT}
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! GO AMPX
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
=============================================================
Subj: Storage
Date: 96-10-25 20:45:32 EST
From: SDCELIS
What other companies are entering the storage business or are already
involved with the downloading of movies/videos with the high speed
downloading of 20 megabytes a second to a consumer's set-top storage device
for play at normal speed? Ampex if it can deliver the access times as well
as transfer speeds would sound like a logical match especially with the
develpoment of high speed cable modems, MMDS modems. Customer selects from
thousands of stored movies from Amazon Women on the Moon to Zorba the Greek,
obtains two minute download of movie to set-top storage for regular play.
Charge a higher fee for newly released, popular movies (who has been able to
get a popular movie when it first comes out?) and you put Blockbuster, Movies
Unlimited, Viacom in trouble, unless they buy into this industry which they
probably already have. Any thoughts?Subj: Re:Storage
Date: 96-10-25 21:25:21 EST
From: H102548
The DST line is absolutely ideal for this. And in fact has been used for
exactly this purpose in Korea for several years.( Purchased by Hyundai )
=============================================================
Subj: K&M DREAMS
Date: 96-10-26 16:43:26 EST
From: H102548
Apologize for talking so much lately, but its a slow saturday afternoon and
keepered media dreams keep slipping in to the day. Some folks are into S&M.
For the next 8 weeks I'm in to K&M.
For the moment, MR and KM are competitive techs. But as some ( Jubimer,
HPhil etc.) have suggested on this board, there may come a day when they
complement and enhance each other, and IBM will turn from a formidable
competitor to a formidable ally.
We know AXC is working on just that. With KM's performance now established,
I'm very sure that someone at IBM is working on the same thing. MR and KM
could be peas and a pod in time. But these are dreams. Not impossible dreams,
but dreams.
Clearly though, the KM project will continue beyond year's end. With or
without contracts. In the meantime, rumors are flying......
Still long AXC.
=============================================================
Subj: Re:OPTION ACTION
Date: 96-10-27 15:56:32 EST
From: Brooke295
By the end of the week we'll all wish we bot more at 7.5. Stock should trade
8.5 to 9 just on its earnings....w/o KM tech. Option action indicates
possible positve news very soon. KM tech could push AXC back to its yearly
high.
Good luck to all!!!
=============================================================
Subj: Re:OPTION ACTION
Date: 96-10-27 23:35:30 EST
From: HPhill
Hope its higher! I have been counting up the profits but somehow it seems
like winning a sweepstakes. I dream about it but can't really believe its
going to happen. But the odds are better in the stock market but I haven't
make a real killing in a long time. Just a little here or there!
=============================================================
Subj:
Keepered Media Article
Date: 96-10-28 10:42:57 EST
From: Jubimer
I have a copy of the Data Storage Oct 96 issue. Keepered is indeed the cover
story "Keepered Media add Byte to Magnetic Recording Heads". Nice color etc.
The article is, of course, technical in nature, but some quotes stand out to
me. For example, the introductory paragraph ends ...... "it (keepered media)
is expected to be used in hard-disk drives in 1997." That doesn't say an
order has been executed, but it is stronger than saying it has the potential
to be used in hard disk drives.
Also, "Though work to date has been done with thin-film and metal-in
gap-inductive heads, theory suggests that keepered can also be used to
advantage with magneto-resistive(MR) heads."
There is also an interesting article in the same issue about manufacturing
yields of magnetic heads by Denis Waid, Peripheral Research. Here are some
quotes..."MR heads counterweigh this cozy scenario with manufacturing yeilds
somewhere between 18% and 25%...."
A little later, ".....In the case of MR head yields, it means setting up to
make 4 or 5 MR heads for every good one that's sold..."
I think this illustrates why there is a growing preponderance of evidence
that keepered media will be successful. It will allow disk drive makers to
reduce the manufacturing costs of their components. With the presentation of
the test results in various venues recently, IDEMA in Sept, for example, it
is clear that Keepered Media works. What will close the sale is a
realization by the disk drive makers that they can cut manufacturing costs by
using keepered media.
For you engineers out there, I am looking for the answer to the following: I
noticed on the Western Digital home page, a chart comparing their new WD
Enterprise to the 4GB competition. In the configuration comparison line the
WD 4360 uses:
4 Disks
8 Heads, TFI(thin film ind)/PRML
Areal Density of 769 (mb/in2)
This compared to the Seagate Barracuda 4LP ST34371
with
5 disks
10 heads, MR(magneto resisitive)/PRML
Areal 660(mb/in2)
It was compared to 3 others, IBM, Quantum, Fujitsu similiarly as they used
more heads of the MR type and more disks.
One of WD's selling points is fewer components. How do they achieve areal
density using fewer disks and heads? Could keepered media be involved?
=============================================================
Subj: Re:Keepered Media Article
Date: 96-10-28 20:32:40 EST
From: GPerry4848
Good post Jubimer!
Oct. Data Storage issue indeed ran a cover story - "Keepered Media Add
More Byte to Magnetic Recording Heads", and features a cover photo of the
concept courtesy of Ampex. The article is a highly technical paper describing
the keepering layer technology in great detail with a few charts and graphs
comparing the performance of thin-film media with a keepered layer with that
without a keepered layer. Four full pages of highly technical material
written by Mr. Beverley Gooch and Thomas Coughlin of Ampex Corp. and Bruce
Lairson of Rice University. Mentions that theory suggests keepered media
could also be used to improve performance of magneto-resistive (MR) heads.
Also says to expect to see it used in hard-drives in 1997. The authors state
that the keeper layer could stabilize magnetic media to reduce thermal
demagnetization which would reduce the probability for degradation of data.
Overall- a very well-written technical paper by some very intelligent
people. You can buy the Oct. ( Vol. 3, No. 8) issue for $10 by calling
918-831-9424. According to the credits following the article, Beverley Gooch
is a principle engineer at Ampex. He has been designing magnetic recording
devices since 1982 and holds 26 patents in recording technology and is a
senior member of IEEE. Thomas Coughlin has over 17 years experience in the
magnetic recording industry and has been working with Ampex on the
development of keepered media technology. He graduated from the Univ. of
Minnesota and has published numerous articles on magnetic recording. He is
also a member of the IEEE and IDEMA. Bruce Lairson is an assistant professor
in materials science at Rice Univ.
I agree with your comments - drive makers will most likely adpot the
keepered layer concept for their drives- there are many benefits for the
small investment in using the keepered layer media. One other point- by
using a keepered layer, the flying height of the inductive head can be
maintained at a safe distance from the magnetic film, increasing the
durability of the drives as well as increasing capacity without having to
lower the height of the head above the disk.
=============================================================
Subj: Re:Keepered Media Article
Date: 96-10-28 22:38:28 EST
From: HPhill
Isn't MR supposed to increse density also? How much density does MR heads
add. I recall about 25% to 40% for KM? When is this drive to be
produced?
=============================================================
Subj: Hypotheticals
Date: 96-10-29 08:04:45 EST
From: H102548
Hypothetically. Let's happily assume for a moment that KM contracts are
achieved - this year or next. Now we know that would give a huge boost to
AXC's corporate credibility ( adding a promising sheen to the rest of their
patents) ... and we know that would give a pleasant jolt to their growth
prospects ... and we know that would get Ampex's foot in the door of a market
that is larger than any they presently address...... But how much money
would it bring? Any guesses? Revenues? Margins?
=============================================================
Subj: Re:Hypotheticals
Date: 96-10-29 08:52:05 EST
From: H102548
.....and was there any mention in the Data Storage article of the channel
electronic and i/o patents Ampex holds that markedly improve the performance
of the KM layer? The company has said all along that it did not incorporate
them in the initial tests, feeling that would involve too great an assembly
line change off the bat. If KM is sold .... licensing of those patents
somewhere down the line is close to inevitable.
=============================================================
Subj: High Fibre Diet
Date: 96-10-29 11:15:19 EST
From: H102548
If I'm going to let dreams slip into this discussion, might as well let
emotions in too. I see AXC is slipping a little again today. I have rarely
felt better about an investment on a down day. If this issue isn't, at the
very least, north of 10 in the next 12 months, I'll eat the Jolly Green
Giant's sweatsocks.
( If it isn't well north of 10 in the next 3 years - that may be the best
meal I can find. I live off of my investments)
Very good luck to this board, and to this truly interesting stock.
=============================================================
Subj: Re:option action
Date: 96-10-29 16:29:26 EST
From: Steven7373
Option action: CALL action has slowed in the last 2 days.....NOTE the volume
on PUTS is "0"
There is only 10 contracts for JAN 10's ....AND.. 10 for JAN. 7 1/2's
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!GO
=============================================================
Subj: Options
Date: 96-10-29 18:17:13 EST
From: SDCELIS
Steve could you explain what is going on with the options and how that
relates to the stock price. Still a novice and would like to learn. For
instance, I'm not sure if I understand your last post. Zero "put" activity
would seem good as "call" activity would to bode well. Right? I've never
bought puts or calls and so haven't really learned this aspect of the market.
I received a prospectus about this stock from the Pennsylvania Merchant
Group. Nice people. Had a 18-24 month target of 12-14, I believe I don't
have the exact numbers in front of me. Thanks in advance for your help.
=============================================================
Subj: Re:Options
Date: 96-10-29 19:54:52 EST
From: Acsm
I agree. What is the relevancy to AXC's stock price? Thanx.
=============================================================
Subj: Re:Optimism $$$
Date: 96-10-29 20:28:23 EST
From: MQUAD
For a 50-year-old company that once dominated the market for TV gear, Ampex
(AXC) is having a long overdue rebirth. Its shares, languishing at 3 to 4 in
January, have zoomed to nearly 12. The big push came in April when investors
got wind of the company's proprietary technology called ``keepered media,''
which increases the speed and data-storage capacity of hard-disk drives.
One San Francisco manager thinks the stock will go even higher when orders
for keepered technology roll in. That may not be the only thing pushing the
stock up: This investor thinks Ampex is an attractive takeover target for one
of its potential customers currently testing keepered media.
He says that the technology is being tried out by major disk-drive makers,
including Seagate Technology, Western Digital, and Quantum. He believes one
of them will try to acquire Ampex. There are about eight big makers of hard
drives, three of them foreign-owned. Ampex will confirm only that it has
signed nondisclosure pacts with four makers, three U.S. and one foreign.
CEO Ed Bramson says that, if initial test results are confirmed, it means
the advantages of using keepered media in disk drives ``will be quite
significant.'' But he notes Ampex hasn't yet received any orders for it.
Eric Appell, an analyst at the securities firm Dabney Resnick, says the
response from major disk-drive makers has been favorable. Another analyst,
Kenneth Trbovich of The Red Chip Review says keepered media could be used as
an ``intermediate technology'' with current inductive disks and in future
generations of disk drives.
BY GENE G. MARCIAL |
