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Strategies & Market Trends : Making Money is Main Objective

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To: Softechie who started this subject	2/2/2001 11:10:36 AM
From: Softechie	of 2155

Analog Semiconductors 2/2/01 (from CSFB) NSM: Take Two National Semiconductor (NSM, $27.31, Not Rated) pre-announced a revenue and earnings shortfall. Revenue is now expected to be down 20%, versus 10%. Earnings Per Share are expected to be $0.20 to $0.22 versus consensus of $0.31. We believe turns orders will be in the $37 to $40 million range, down 50% from the November quarter and the expected rate and down 75% from the August quarter. Key points: (1) inventory AND demand issues, (2) customers have significantly reduced visibility; (3) utilization rates have fallen dramatically (40% to 75% range); (4) ASPs remain strong; (5) distributor inventories are at "normal" levels; and (6) lead-times are near zero. While analog stocks appear to have discounted CQ1 and CQ2 weakness, we remain cautious on our universe, as current valuations are aggressive in light of reduced visibility and bookings trends.

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