Y2K (Year 2000) Personal Contingency Planning Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Y2K (Year 2000) Personal Contingency Planning

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To: Bill Wexler who wrote (68)	4/16/1998 4:26:00 AM
From: James Baloun	of 888

Why hasn't it happened yet? I don't think I can keep this short...sorry... From my understanding, we have not seen noticeable significant failures to date because we have been operating under the umbrella of the first cycles of the clocks and because the failures have been infrequent enough to he able to be handled by regular system maintenance, maybe a few small emergencies. Yes, it seems not much has happened. How long will this last? I have heard a few logical arguments for failures to become more frequent in the next two years. I think they will occur in more of a statistical distribution roughly centered on the turn of the century. Other clock roll over dates have been discussed. But will too many failures in a short time push us over the edge? I used to think the stock market didn't like uncertainty but the bull charges on... For example a coded equation that tries to divide by year 00 etc. The situation in the mainframes and PC's is bad enough. Programmers will be working hard to check what they can. What concerns me is the read only memory code in the embedded chips. I have worked with an engineer burning custom code into an EPROM chip. It is a mini computer that is then installed in a box and deployed to operate by itself. It could possibly have a date code included. Independent systems are widely used. I worked at Douglas Aircraft and heard about the magnitude of computer software difficulties involved in building the C-17 aircraft. Newer planes have more software. Planes can sustain substantial failures and survive and can operate on many systems other than the GPS. But is there a potential conflict somewhere in the lines of code? No one knows. The risk goes up. I only had the required semester of FORTRAN and I am impressed by how rigid was the logic and functions of the early languages. It was hard enough to get it to run. That's the problem with this problem. Logically there is the potential for a problem, no one knows when or where. You can take care of the problems you can remember, but have you forgotten anything? Will some of the few remaining problems happen where it is most inconvenient and lead to a cascade? General Motors is taking it seriously. Banks are the tightest tight-wads, yet they are coughing up millions. They squeeze us for every penny. Engineers study a system until the risk is brought down to a practical , acceptable level. Many planes fly, and some planes crash. This bug is one big wild card of unknown risk. How do I analyze it? I can understand it, but I can't say if you do this, everything will be all right. Even under normal conditions we live with an affordable risk. Risk that is carefully understood. The problem with Y2K is no one knows how big is the risk. It can't be carefully defined, there isn't enough time. Sorry if this sounds like a cop out, It is just the way it is. James

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