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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index
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To: bwtidal who wrote (6949)11/19/2002 7:02:27 PM
From: GraceZ of 306849
 
Ha! Unfunded pension liability, that's a good one. I doubt seriously that those two old bears did that exercise back in 2000 when everyone and their brother was planning on early retirement and even cashiers at Walmart had million dollar portfolios. You have to love the way people choose time frames that suit their own personal prejudice when making these kinds of assessments.

It always has been and always will be mathematically impossible to save for a retirement that is equal to your present lifestyle when you are investing in assets that yield close to treasury yields....unless you are willing to live your whole life on half your income and save the other half. This is why if people aren't willing to live on half their income they have to put some of their assets into an investment that engages risk, with the higher risk comes higher yields. One of the most serious mistakes people make is to exchange safety of principle for return. The other dumb mistake is to look at the near past and assume rates of return will match that of the preceding few years instead of looking for them to revert to the mean.

Right now real estate and bonds look like great investments but the chance of them looking like great investments over the next three years is highly unlikely....while other investments which have been beaten down in the previous three years or previous twenty years (as in the case on gold) may be looking a whole lot better ten years down the road.
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