IMUC- ImmunoCellular Therapeutics Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : IMUC- ImmunoCellular Therapeutics

IMUC 0.110

-38.9%

Oct 28 9:30 AM EDT

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To: beaute-club.fr who wrote (6)	4/8/2013 4:06:51 AM
From: pmredmonton	of 7

Well now the stock is $2.43 per share. The crux of the argument for this stock is a novel way to teach the immune system to fight cancer by grabbing some cells and priming it to react to a bunch of cell surface markers that are present in the cancer stem cells. Then you put those immune system cells back in the patient and hope the immune system can seek out what is left of the cancer and destroy the cancer stem cells. I find it very hard to believe the treatment is a hoax because they got a very good result in a very deadly condition (a deadly form of brain cancer called glioblastoma multiforme or GBM). The typical standard of care sees patients live about 14 months from the time of diagnosis with few survivors beyond two years. In the study they ran the 50% survival point was around 39 months and there are still 6 patients alive at more than 4 years since diagnosis. The risk in shorting this stock is they will announce at some point in the next few months when the 32nd event occurred in their ongoing trial. The event is death. At that point an analysis of data will be done to see if the trial has been a success or if they need to maintain blinding and go onto the intended endpoint of 64 events. I believe there are around 123 patients enrolled with 82 receiving treatment and 41 receiving placebo. Now based on standard of care which sees 50% survival at 18 months at most the 32nd event should have happened awhile ago. If we get to mid-April there is a good chance that the medication will have been shown to improve survival by about 9 months (again assuming 18 months survival is expected outcome without treatment). My point is that if you keep shorting this stock and they continue not reporting the 32nd event the investment public will put 2+2 together and realize the treatment works. This will cause a rapid spike up and likely cause a short squeeze to those unfortunate individuals who hold a short position here. It is too dangerous to hold this stock right now at this volatile time. I'd strongly encourage you to close your short position and take your small gain if you haven't already done so. The line of reasoning I have shown you puts you in peril. I suppose there is a small chance that SOC ends up being much better than 18 months and IMUC doesn't provide any benefit but this disease has a well understood natural history and most people think 18 months is overly generous and we more often quote 14 months in the medical community to our patients. Again, the longer this one goes without an announcement of the 32nd event the more likely it is that the study will be positive. Since the treatment appears to be relatively benign (reintroducing immune cells back into the patient) and there is no good treatment for this very fatal disease, there is a very good chance this medication would be fast-tracked for FDA approval. Once that happens the stock can really take off rapidly and there may be big buyout offers from a major pharma. You also have to remember that GBM isn't the only condition they have targeted as right now they are using the same technique to try and find a treatment for ovarian cancer. They have several patented cell markers to build immune system products from and they may be able to target many more types of cancer over time. Once they have a stable revenue generating product they should be able to leverage their sales, get debt financing easily and pursue more clinical trials and hopefully bring more of these treatments for cancer to the public. This isn't just a company with one trick up its sleeve. Rather they have developed a whole new way of fighting cancer at its roots. If their first product works then I think you can easily be looking at a market cap of over $1B. They will look very tempting to big pharma in need of new pipelines for their ongoing patent cliff issues. Again, be careful with your short. This is a very dangerous time to be caught holding a short in this company.

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