"Good, enough progress has been made there for everyone to withdraw. Time for the blue helmets to come in."
I agree.
We have knocked over the Dictator, and given the people of 'Iraq' an opportunity to forge their own future. (The founding of our own nation was certainly not free from pain or blood... with many on the losing side forced to take flight with their families, and head out to other parts of the British Empire.) Freedom must be earned.
Nation building', in a place where significant numbers among the population don't necessarily *want* to be associated with others among their 'countrymen', is bound to be a risky, bloody, low-percentage business.
The Kurds' long-term goal (despite what they will admit to in public...) is still an independent Kurdish homeland. After all, they ARE the largest irredentist movement in the world (the largest ethnic grouping, spread across several national borders, that is still without a country of their own. They still smart from the post WW I betrayal by the West that denied them self-rule. (It's not too difficult to understand why they are cautious in publicly expressing this... given that Turkey has promised to launch an invasion the moment the Kurds declare independence. Therefore, the Kurds will likely remain 'affiliated' with whatever remains of 'Iraq' for a while yet, and only *gradually* build their freedoms and strengths in preparation for nationhood.) They will also be a strong ally for the US (actually welcoming our bases), because they hope we can keep the Turks off of their backs. --- They can handle the Shia and Sunni on their own terms, but they need us for political support against the Turks.
The Shiite southern half of 'Iraq' is large enough to stand on it's own as a nation... but is most likely to be heavily influenced by Iran, who is building their military up, and with whom they have already signed a defense pact.
The Sunnis in the west and middle --- still smarting over their loss of 'top dog' status --- will most likely fight on until they are defeated. Because they have financial and (increasingly) military support from the Saudis, it will be a long and bloody conflict... but that especially argues that our US forces should not be prostrated in the middle between the warring parties, having both sides take pot shots at us and using the US as a scapegoat to blame all of their troubles and failings upon.
Far better for the US to pull out, and let the locals get about the business of settling their own conflicts.
Strategically, it seems that would even be in our best long-term interests... to see the fundamentalist Sunni extremists (& the Sunni Wh'abbist radicals like al Qaeda), pitted against the Shiite Iranian radicals and their terrorist sock puppets. An inter-Islamic war is much overdue. Islam has never had the opportunity for a Reformation, such as occurred in the West after the wars between Catholics and Protestants.
It would keep them out of our hair, and (ultimately, I believe) see a 'pox' visited upon BOTH houses of the radicals.
Just take a look at the amount of radical, Iranian-backed, groups that are rising to power among the Shiites in the South of Iraq. This is a story that has been much over-looked by the short-sighted American media:
Message 21746052
Two years on, Iran is the only clear winner of war on Saddam
September 23, 2005
timesonline.co.uk
The Times
By Richard Beeston
CROSS-BORDER INFLUENCE
Badr Brigades
A Shia militia force of 12,000 trained by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and blamed for a spate of recent killings of Sunni Muslims. Thought to control several cities in southern Iraq
Islamic Dawaa Party
Shia party that has strong links to Iran. Its leader, Ibrahim al-Jaafari, the present Prime Minister, has vowed to improve ties between the two neighbours
Mahdi Army
Received arms and volunteers from Iran during its battle against US and British troops last year. Ahmed al-Fartusi, its commander in Basra, was arrested by British forces last weekend
Mujahidin for Islamic Revolution in Iraq
Tehran-backed militia blamed for the murder of six British Royal Military Police soldiers in Majar el-Kabir in 2003
Thar Allah (Vengeance of God)
Iranian-backed terror group blamed for killing former members of the ruling Baath party and enforcing strict Islamic law
Jamaat al-Fudalah (Group of the Virtuous)
Paramilitary group that imposes Islamic rules on Shia areas; attacks shops selling alcohol and music
Al-Fadilah (Morality)
Secret political movement financed by Iran. Thought to have many members among provincial officials
Al-Quawaid al-Islamiya (Islamic Bases)
Iranian-backed Islamic movement that uses force to impose Islamic law |
