cheryl,
Although I'm not privy to Sun's licensing fee structure data, I offer the following:
Microsoft Visual J++ $89
Jamba $185
Symantec Visual Cafe $75
Java Workshop $79
Sun JDK1.1 $0
Last I read, Microsoft said some 100,000+ copies of Visual J++ had been sold ~$8,900,000 compared to whatever they pay Sun for Licensing Java in the firstplace. I fully expect this number to grow, for both Microsoft or Symantec.
Now, I think common sense will tell you that Sun will never compete with Microsoft or Symantec on the Windows platform in Java development tools or for that matter Java applications, therefore the lions share of any money to be made on tools or apps is with those companies.
Also, the shear number of PC's compared to Sun workstations will lead one to believe that most Java applications will be developed for PC's with Java VM's. The goal for Sun, is to get rid of the PC's (or atleast as many as possible), but this does not mean most companies will out right replace their PC's. They will, in fact migrate to Java on their current hardware and deploy NC's where it makes sense. Since, Sun seems to have, IMHO, the best NC concept going, I expect them to sell many of these devices, this is where Sun will generate most of it's cash. To date, this has had no impact on Sun's bottom line, and won't for sometime.
Unfortunately, UNIX and Microsoft don't quite like each other, nor do their users. I do UNIX/C for a living, but I prefer a PC for home use, like it or not, the apps are there. I don't wish to start a flame war, but Microsoft is an excellent software company (read money maker) and they can and will survive Java. As a user and investor, I know Win vs Java is not a zero sum game, and I don't subscribe to the jihad like mentality of those who have no idea how the "real world" works.
Nor do I subscribe to the notion we'll all have T1 to our homes in the next decade and we'll all get NC's. T1 in a plane, car, hotel, India, China? NC's have no place in the home market which is very large and getting bigger. In the office this is a different story altogether!
As an investor I like both companies, although MSFT is starting to threaten Sun with NT, I don't see Sun having a great deal of trouble. Actually, I see every other UNIX/Mainframe vendor falling to Sun, and Sun owning the Java VM in silicon. Thus, back to my original assertion that Sun is a hardware company, and will make most if not all their money from Java via hardware sales of servers, NC's and chips.
BTW: Did you notice Sun's response to Internet development via the Sparc 5 model 170, w/SunPC card? Basically two machines in one, why would they have done this. Because, they know the customer on the Internet is using a PC 99% of the time.
One area I'd like to see Sun attack, is the infamous car mapping system, long promised by the auto industry. This would of course require a storage device of some sort to hold the app and the map. I can't say I'd want Java in my anti-lock brakes, but in general system monitoring and reporting to the driver and other stuff it would be pretty cool. I'm sure someone in GM is evaluating Java vs CE at this very moment. One Java chip for every car sold, that's a lot of chips! |
