Good luck, Chaz. I had to become very negative on the Q in order to exit my position. That was a mental expedient. In order to buy back in, I would have to reverse that process. I'm not sure I know how. LOL!
In general, I would rather be in a "good news" stock instead of a "bad news" stock. Things like all the conflicting reports out of China are "bad news"--insofar as they are confusing to investors about the company's fundamentals (even if it's not important in the long run--when we're all dead according to Keynes LOL!!!!!).
That doesn't mean you can't make good money in a "bad news" stock. That is a contrarian's baby. Eventually the pessimism makes the stock a screaming bargain, and the market becomes so negative that further bad news has no further effect, while good news can be quite ameliorative. QCOM may or may not be at that point right now. But in any case, that is just how a contrarian would play it. For myself, I think I would rather see how the Korea stuff plays out before committing. If SK Telecom goes W-CDMA, I believe the market will react negatively in QCOM. At that point, I don't think things could get much worse, and the stock could become an incredible steal.
Of course, this scenario may never play out. But it is the key event I personally will be looking for w/r/t positioning. I kind of like using fundamental events as keys to taking a position. My first key to get out of QCOM was when China waffled. (If I had been smarter, my first key would have been when management projected flat numbers for the March quarter.) The last key, for selling the last part of my position, was when they announced they might try to build a network in Japan.
If you look at those type of key events, you will notice that diehards always try to take a positive interpretation. For example, I believe no less an entity than EAL counseled that the market was overreacting to Q's guidance for the March quarter, since this was nothing more than evidence that the seasonality inherent in wireless was catching up with the rapid growth of CDMA subscribers. But (in retrospect at least), the key to the market's negative interpretation was that, until that time, QCOM had become a "good news" stock. When a "good news" stock gives anything less than "good news", it is really "bad news" as far as the share price is concerned. Further developments in QCOM, such as China's vacillating and questions over DDI's commitment to cdma2000, were in fact unequivocal "bad news".
JMHO |
