Bob, I hate Latin America, in general, though I still like Chile. I own puts on TMX, MXF and TBH, considering Mexico and Brazil the most overpriced and most vulnerable to a US economic meltdown.
O.K., that being said, the CEFs in the area are cheap. I wouldn't buy them, but with 20-40% discounts to NAV, they are awfully hard to hate.
Lucent is the tip of the iceberg. The hucksters are saying that their problems are co. specific and not to worry. I think it is much worse than that. The communications industry, grotesquely overvalued, is starting to crack on its foundations. Cell phone sales growth, the basic unit of the game, is starting to slow. Even the chip market is noticing it. If you combine down pc sales with slowing cell phone growth, you set up a potential problem for several high flyers. Ciena has been my favorite target, but Nortel may make the list soon. |
