It's always guesswork about when to buy a company such as AFFX, since it's really impossible to value.
But here goes: I'd buy now. (I'd buy more myself but before I get into a company like AFFX, I set myself a limit of the maximum amount of money I'm willing to commit to it, i.e. that I'd run the risk of losing--and I'm already at that limit, so I can't buy more, according to my own rules.) For what it's worth, I bought at 31 3/8 average price, and held through the latest drop. Its 52 week high was 40-something, so it has dropped substantially, yet to my eye, the company is further advanced in establishing its technology as an industry standard than it was when the stock was much higher.
From what you've written, it sounds as though you're considering buying it for "the story"--frowned on in some circles, but still legit (to me). Whatever your reason for buying--my advice (if you buy) is to stick with it unless and until that reason is no longer valid. AFFX--even it pays off--will be up and down dramatically.
My 2 bits:
Research some more. Read this list, Inctye's, Nanogen (AFFX competitors.) Make a list of AFFX partners and collaborators--see what you think of that "industry map." Definitely get the company annual report. Check dejanews. and if you do buy: be very clear about why you're buying and stick to that reasoning, re-examining it periodically.
Hope this is helpful.
-Andy |
