Investor2: I do my own technical analysis which is based on a fellow from many years ago. Based on that, I ended up with the 7,050 number which rises as time passes. If the DJI goes through that number then a bear market using this analysis would be confirmed. Then we should have the first rally in a bear market. That will be my point to start trading. That rally should take us up again in the mid 7,000s. In a typical bear market, we should have three legs down with bear market rallys. My plans are to trade the ups and downs of the bear market. The following is something I posted on the Kahuna thread in September and I will post it here.
"I sat down and plotted what would happen in today's numbers, if the DJI did what it did during part of the 1970s. To do this, I used the 1970s DJI averages; determined the percentage change from one swing to another; and then applied the percent change to the 1990s DJI numbers. So using the 1990 numbers with the 1970s dates, it would look like this. The date is on the left and the DJI is on the right.
1/73 ------8,000
9/73-------6,320
11/73-----7,458
12/73-----5,892
3/74-------6,775
10/74-----4,336
7/75-------6,721
8/75-------5,914
3/76-------7,718
2/78-------5,581
The 1/73 date was the high and the 46% decline of the 73, 74 bear market double-bottomed in 10/74 and 12/74."
These are the markets that I traded in 20 years ago. They look like a lot of fun don't they? If I get the confirmation, this is the type of market I anticipate. However, I really cannot predict exactly what will happen. No one can. However, a 13% correction, which we have now, does not compare to a bear market. There will be plenty of 13% or more moves. But then again, who really knows?
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