Sorin, i don't know margaret. i do know cabot though. cabot is selling not because the fundamentals of Cymer have changed but because he has incurred a loss. Does Cabot come back to stocks? Yes, he came back to both Iomega and Presstek after selling those issues.
Here are two recent examples of stocks which Cabot sold in his portfolio because of a loss:
BE Aerospace. Cabot purchased BE in the mid $20s and it shot up to high $20s. BE supplies aircraft with entertainment systems, seating, etc. When Boeing made an negative announcement about not getting enough help to build all the planes, BE's stock fell to around $22. Cabot came over the line and sold BE. It stayed in that range for a couple of days. Then, on one day, no one knows why, BE fell to $19. He stayed there for five minutes and then shot up to $24. shorts started covering. BE announced in the next few weeks that a contract with British Air would result in substantive revenue. BE's stock price moved up over the next few months to $41. recently it fell back to high $20s because of Boeing's new announcement. Had the fundamentals of BE Aerospace changed? No. Cabot even printed up a nice flier for all the brokers in America to read and mailed it to them touting BE Aerospace as the "one to buy." By the time his flier reached my desk, he had already sold BE from his portfolio - but here he was touting the company to get more clients for his newsletter. We bought BE at $24 to $28 and sold it recently at $35 - after Cabot had sold it!
Radisys: Cabot bought Radisys at $46 during last year's hotsy totsy time and RSYS shot up to $70, then quickly fell back to around $42 on selling and shorting. Nothing at RSYS had changed. Cabot sold it. Then, in April of this year RSYS fell with all the other tech stocks. RSYS fell especially hard because a lawsuit was brought against it by a former employee. RSYS fell to $22. Was anyone buying RSYS that held it at $46? Not many. They were all negative. We bought RSYS at $26 to $28 and sold it and bought it back intermittenly since April. It is now at $46 and its story is only getting better and the fundamentals and PE ratio relative to its price is only improving. Has anything at RSYS changed because Cabot sold it for a loss at $42? No. RSYS was Cabot's stock of the month - he told everyone about how that embedded computers were outselling PCs 20 to 1, blah blah.
Before ANYONE sells Cymer based on Cabot's recommendation I challenge you to look at Cabot's rate of return so far this year! His own money management team has earned a whopping 7%! Momentum trader extraordinaire indeed!
As for Cymer falling to $17.50. Margaret obviously doesn't know much about this company or its backers. If Cymer fell to $17.50, you'd see every short in the nation covering their position so quickly it would look like a rocket looking for the moon (as it was with BE Aerospace - look at its chart - the same thing would happen). I don't see Cymer falling to $17.50. I can see it falling to $19 at which time the shorts will cover very quickly. Even though $17 was an old support base, shorts will cover before the base is reached, at least professional shorts will. More likely Cymer will hit $21 to $20 and firm up with much covering at that point. It is at that point you should sell your other stocks and buy as it will make you some good points and good money.
I hope Cymer doesn't fall to $20 for my sake and those others that are truly long and not pretending so.
Cymer's business is intact. It's sales are growing. DUV is the wave of the future. There is no other probable competition at this point. Komatsu has a system, but this must undergo testing which will take many months if not years. Cymer will have already introduced their second winning system by then.
In twelve months Cymer will have eclipsed even your notions if you can hang tight. If not, good luck and God's speed to all of us. |
