Welcome home, marc! And I must say, you returned with an excellent post.
Re: "Too bad what probably was the best call in Bob's career on the bear market has been badly tarnished by the CTR call."
I couldn't agree more. As Kirk says, it appears Bob snagged defeat from the jaws of victory. While playing playing Bob's recommendations conservatively in the past has reduced my return, my conservative stance on the QQQ trade has benefited me. Still, the dollars invested in QQQ is money that will not be available for MOABO, which is a shame.
RE: "1)maybe we'll still get a huge CTR to close to 3000 and then enter a final plunge to 1500 or below. Would be ideal if we recognized it, eased out near the top and sat in a bunch of cash for moabo. However the train called ideal left the station a long time ago and I have no idea if that is feasible anymore."
I don't know about the numbers, but I do believe that we will have a CTR sometime between now and the final bottom. But I'm not sure enough about that belief to make large changes in my equity allocations in an attempt to profit from the CTR.
Isn't your paragraph #2 the same as paragraph #1?
RE: "We're ... almost in bleak horrendous unchartered territory. I don't know about you guys but after the tremendous beating I've been through I can't fathom selling at any level here."
I'm planning on seeing the bleak horrendous uncharted territory that you reference. But the NASDAQ levels are closer to the bottom than they are to the top, which means the worst is over, in terms of market cap loss. Like you, I'm not going to sell too much at these low levels.
FWIW, a number of the stocks I follow are at valuations which have historically proven to be good buy points.
RE: "The other big issue in my mind is with these huge losses, and at least the short term indicators proving a flop, will Bob's model still recognize moabo?"
My guess it "yes." However, it may be wise to dollar-cost-average into the market rather than hoping for the perfect entry point.
Best wishes,
I2 |
