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Technology Stocks : Seagate Technology
STX 265.55+3.8%4:00 PM EST

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From: Sam8/28/2015 12:31:52 PM
   of 7841
 
Seagate Is In Trouble And Nobody Seems To Care
Storage Guy
Aug. 27, 2015 1:45 PM ET | 47 comments | About: Seagate Technology (STX), Includes: MU, WDC
Disclosure: I am/we are short STX. (More...)

Summary
  • The HDD business is clearly in secular decline.
  • The dangers from declining tech demand, SSD substitution, Western Digital, etc. are higher than they have ever been.
  • Stock support will collapse as it becomes clear the dividend is at risk.
Do you want to be an owner of this business?

Quarterly Adjusted Net Income (in millions)

(click to enlarge)

The prudent investor, suspecting a trick question, should ask at what price? For Seagate (NASDAQ: STX), the answer is ~15x last quarter annualized earnings (of the adjusted variety). And in my opinion, earnings will continue to decline over time. So the diligent investor should perhaps conclude that the potential reward is nowhere close to compensating the investors for the risk.

more at
seekingalpha.com
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