For me, main purpose of research will be finding, analyzing and filtering investment opportunities
I won't write it to become member of VIC or any other forum.
It just so happened that after my exams i have 2-weeks window with time to spare and therefore i started to look into individual equities
Writing a complete and structured report about business, with intention to invest, is simply a way to organize thoughts, thesis, numbers and then, if the result is not a complete garbage, get an objective criticism
Becoming a member and possibly getting 5k on top of it is just bonus from my perspective
That said, about KASP and Kaz:
Main thesis is similar to what Buffet said about AmEx in his partnership years: "Through legal scandal, business became undervalued relative to it's cash-flows" *not precise wording of course
Stock took a beating due circumstances described in report, most of which aren't related to business nor management.
About your dividend and apparent disappointment ;) - Turkey is more competitive however larger(87m ppl) than Kaz(21m). Both countries have young and growing population. Unlike developed markets that went through painful phase of trial and error with digitalization, EM can and do copy and paste already tested solutions with improvements guided by management(if they are smart and lucky enough). Kaspi was pretty good at this so far, becoming a partial monopoly without issues with government(which used to hold a stake in enterprise)
*They plan to invest additional 300m into HEPS/Rabobank
Question about dividends for sure ll be asked during upcoming Q3, so i will keep you updated on that
% of portfolio:
I was born and raised in Eastern Europe(immigrated to Canada few years ago when i turned 17), fluent in Russian and familiar with folks from Kazakhstan. Your assumption about oil/gas/uranium country is right, however with years more and more GDP growth is coming from services rather than natural resources. I hold concentrated portfolio therefore 3-5% new position in something that I am more confident than usual will do
Bottom-up number - i just didn't want to write each metric related to user acquisition, tbh i was too lazy and it wouldn't provide much analytical value. If anyone was interested in precise % they could open a presentation and spare me
Finn |
