Investing during a Bear Market Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Investing during a Bear Market

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To: raymond marcotte who wrote (77)	11/10/1997 8:40:00 AM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (2) of 226

"just be patient. this volatility and occasional-pessimism-period too will pass. over time stock prices trend upwards, so shorting is betting against the trend and even worse you are forcing yourself to predict the exact cycle for a particular stock(s). i never heard of anybody who got rich trying that strategy. it is not investing. for sure! why turn to speculation on an attitude about an uncertain futur" This would have been good advice ten or fifteen years ago. The record shows that people who are long at the tops of markets (1969, for example) have to wait many years before they recover from the declines that follow. Of course if it's a family fortune that has already been in the market for 20 years or more and mostly consists of unrealized capital gains, one can hold and collect the dividends. But with dividend yields low or non-existent on many current stocks, the best thing right now is to be in cash or short. The "buy and hold" mantra has been chanted too often. The longest-term, most optimistic investor I know is John Templeton, and he is recommending bonds. He has been in the market for sixty-five years.

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