Keith:
I apologize for barging in, but broadband wireless
services in the 28GHz or 38GHz bands have far more
promise than you seem to assume. One month from now,
the FCC will auction 1.3GHz worth of bandwidth for
LMDS (local multipoint distribution service) in the
28GHz band. The only operating LMDS operator, CVUS,
is offering wireless Internet connection in Manhattan
with a system which allows a theoretical speed of 48Mb/sec.
LMDS allows two-way wireless connections. CVUS is still
using a telco return, but another LMDS operator, called
JATO, is about to roll out a two-way experimental system
in Denver in the 28GHz band, targeted at businesses.
WCII, which operates in the 38GHz band, appears also ready
to roll out a broadband wireless data service. It has
currently at its disposition about 400MHz of bandwidth, which
is more than enough for fast Internet connections
with a significantly smaller infrastructure cost than
required by cable. Later this year or next year, the FCC
will also auction a large chunk of spectrum in the 39GHz
band.
It is also worth noting that LMDS affords the opportunity to
bundle telephony/data (Internet)/and video on demand (including
wireless cable tV) in one service. I expect that the LMDS license
for the San Francisco area (which covers the entire Bay area)
will be extremely attractive, and that the LMDS operator
for this area will be able to provide a service which
will provide some real competition to @Home.
The bottom line hear is that there are actually 3 technologies
for broadband residential access: a) cable, b) x-DSL, and
c) wireless. I think that over the long run, x-DSL will
only be a transitional technology, and that the true
competition is cable versus wireless. |
