I'm into TXN at 49.675, AMAT at 35.50, and LSI at 27.125 (all in March of this year). So far LSI is my best performer, but I feel like it's a crap shoot. As I said before, I don't quite understand what they do. I'm seriously considering dumping the LSI and increasing my TXN and AMAT positions.
By sheer accident, I seem to have gotten into semis at the right time- last year, I was in a diversified mutual fund which returned a little over 25%, but then I started lookin' at some tech stock charts and wondering what happened to destroy the whole SOX. Upon seein' that the gloom and doom were somewhat exaggerated, I decided to move my money out of the fund and into individual stocks. I became interested in TXN after hearing from my friend who works there, and then doing some research on the company. And we all know the story from there- my research convinced me that TXN is a beautiful company.
I've been thinking about working for TI when I get out of school- a friend of mine (perhaps you know her- she works in Defense in Plano, Texas) is really sayin' good things about the work environment there. I can safely say that, if I choose to do engineering, TI will be at the top of my list (with MOT a close second). However, I'm also considering working somewhere in business finance, and my dad's been tryin' to get me to join his patent law practice. Hmmm, it's a tough decision, and I really don't know where I'll end up. A friend of mine (also engineering) recently got a job up on Wall Street, and that sounds like really interesting work. I've always heard that the way to do well in engineering is to get out of engineering- you know, that it's much better as a foundation for something else than it is as a career.
I personally don't have a whole lot of recent information on AMAT, but those who know (on the AMAT thread) seem to think it'll do just fine on earnings. I've got a hunch that they're doin' pretty well, but I've got very little quantitative information to back it up. I don't see any good reason why it shouldn't be trading at $60 or higher right now- it's shown good dependable growth, it's the dominant player in its industry, it appears to be managed well, yet it trades at a low P/E. In fact, it's trading at about 60% of its historical average P/E (according to Valueline), but business is goin' just fine. Sounds like a real no-brainer to me...
I'm hesitant to make such predictions, though- I'm much more comfortable looking at something and saying "It's a good company at a low price" than I am at guessing a specific share value or earnings amount. In fact, although I check my stock prices each day, it's really just for entertainment. Regardless of the predictions of analysts and market volatility, numbers don't lie. AMAT and TXN both have time on their side- as things look now, there's nowhere to go but up. Geez, it's soooo frustrating to see these beautiful opportunities and not have very much money to invest!!!
I'm a little worried (short term) about AMAT later this year, 'cause it seems like the semi troubles will be reflected in fewer new fabs. Right now, they're still runnin' on the momentum of last year, but I wonder how many companies are building new fabs later this year. Sort of a upstream trickle-down from the DRAM collapse. But that's just a short term worry, and I don't think it will be important in the long run. Just a potential buying opportunity, says me. They're more globally diversified and they pump more into R&D than their competitors, and over time that will make them the safer, more profitable company. Oh, did you know that AMAT has a Superfund site? That's some potential bad news, but their 10-K reports that it shouldn't have a material effect on the company. Likewise, they're on the wrong end of a couple of infringement lawsuits, but I get the idea that they're not a cause for concern.
Brandon |
