To All: Just picked this up on the Motley Fool. Did not see it in any of the messages posted, thought it might be of interest.
Marty
Subj: Re:3 Million Zips Shipped
Date: 96-10-01 14:53:14 EDT
From: HYPEMENOT
Despite Cynicalguy attempt to divert attention away from the 3mm Zip number, by focusing his
post on the sales of 2 million Jaz & Ditto units, combined - this is NOT good news.
The reason I believe its not, is that it makes it clear that Zip sales are running well below what
would be necessary to validate the consensus view often expressed on this Board that Iomega will
ship/sell 5-6 million Zip drives in 1996.
Of course, as usual, Iomega makes it difficult for analysts to draw hard and fast conclusions by
stating the facts in a somewhat ambiguous way (i.e. <<more than 3 million>> and <<since the
product began shipping in March 1995>>). This allows optimists to contend that Zip sales might
be far above 3 million (but short of 4mm), and of course it prevents anyone from knowing
precisely how many of the 3mm+ units were shipped THIS YEAR.
As to the first question, I think it is fair to conclude that there is no logical reason to presume
Iomega would wait for some extended period of time before announcing that Zip shipments had
crossed another million unit milestone. Reason says the figure might, by now, actually be 3.1mm,
or maybe even 3.2mm, but not larger than that. Remember also, that IOs statement refers to the
number of drives SHIPPED, so that the 3mm+ number includes inventory in the hands, or on the
shelves of resellers, retailers, etc.. Im not trying to nit-pick here, merely pointing out that a 3mm
unit number probably is a fair approximation of the number of Zip drives actually purchased by
END USERS (with whatever excess over 3mm one might reasonably presume being offset by
unsold Zips in dealer inventories).
As for the matter of what portion of the 3mm Zips were sold in 1996, I have seen no real guidance
about this on this Board, but in the article entitled STORAGE: The Next Generation , that
appeared in the August issue of PC TODAY magazine (and was referenced in a number of posts
here) Dataquest estimated Zip drive sales in 1995 at 750,000. Assuming the Dataquest estimate is
reasonable (if others here have a more reliable source your input would be appreciated) then that
produces an estimate of Zip sales of approximately 2.25mm units for the 1996 year-to-date. That
would of course, mean that Iomega would have to sell 2.75mm Zip drives in the final quarter of
1996, just to reach the LOW END of this years projected range.
And for those who think Dataquests 1995 estimate is too high, using only 500,000 Zip units for
last year, still means that sales for the first nine months of 1996 were not greater than 2.5mm units,
meaning that IO would still have to sell another 2.5mm Zip drives in the final quarter to hit the
bottom end of the estimated range. I know that there are people here that are quite optimistic
about the Zip, but I doubt that there are any (with the possible exception of CG) optimistic enough
to look at these numbers and still believe Iomega will meet even the low end of the estimate range.
FWIW, my own guess ( and I emphasize it is merely a guess) is that full year 1996 Zip drive sales
will fall short of 4mm units. |
