Washington: Making Moves Against Mugabe?
May 08, 2003
stratfor.biz
Summary
The United States appears to be getting involved in crisis-ridden Zimbabwe, where regional leaders have failed to persuade President Robert Mugabe into making political and economic reforms.
Analysis
Walter Kansteiner, the U.S. assistant secretary of state for African affairs, is scheduled to meet with British Foreign Minister Jack Straw next week in Botswana to discuss regime change in Zimbabwe, Africa News reported May 6, citing well-placed sources. U.S. officials say Straw will proceed with a tour of the region and Kansteiner will visit South Africa, reportedly in an effort to garner support for political reform in Zimbabwe.
The United States is now actively pursuing efforts to dislodge Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe from power. Rather than simply levying economic and political sanctions against Mugabe, as it has in the past, Washington now is lobbying other African leaders to press for his ouster. The U.S. efforts -- which comes amid a lack of serious effort by leaders in southern Africa to effect regime change, as well as Mugabe's weakening political grip -- likely are part of a two-pronged approach involving Britain as well.
The question now is whether U.S. maneuvers will tip the scales in favor of regime change and reform.
The situation in Zimbabwe has grown untenable, with unemployment estimated at 70 percent and inflation hitting 228 percent, according to South Africa's Mail and Guardian daily. Neighboring countries have taken steps to insulate themselves from the economic crisis, but to little avail. With the economy in crisis, Mugabe is losing political support: He barely squeaked out a win over Movement for Democratic Change candidate Morgan Tsvangirai in last year's presidential election. And anxiety in neighboring countries continues to mount.
On May 5, leaders from South Africa, Nigeria and Malawi met with Mugabe, as well as with Tsvangirai, in attempts to jumpstart talks between Mugabe and the opposition. The president has insisted that opposition leaders recognize the legality of his re-election before he will discuss political reforms.
The meetings accomplished little, however, and -- after three years of political and economic spiraling -- the inability of Zimbabwe's neighbors to improve the situation is evident. Mugabe's longevity in office and symbolism as a black leader in the post-colonial era have given him considerable strength and influence within the region. And despite the threats to their own economies, governments in the region are reluctant to engage in serious efforts to oust Mugabe, fearing it would set a precedent that could be used against them in the future. All are still struggling with ways to rectify land ownership and racial equality problems left over from the colonial era, and Mugabe's approach -- though economically disastrous -- has been popular with black voters.
At this point, it appears that greater pressure from other sources is required if the crisis in Zimbabwe is to be resolved.
One obvious candidate for applying that pressure is former colonial power Britain, which is Zimbabwe's biggest trading partner behind South Africa. Economic ties between the two countries have suffered as a result of Mugabe's land reform program, but so far, steps taken by London -- such as banning Zimbabwe from the Commonwealth -- have not yet yielded the desired effect.
Now, it appears that Washington -- likely at London's urging -- is stepping into the game.
The timing is conspicuous, since Kansteiner's visit to the region comes amid growing political turmoil. Not only has controversy over the president's re-election last year lingered, but opposition groups and the country's main labor union, the General Agriculture and Plantation Workers' Union of Zimbabwe, have led two nationwide strikes since mid-March, shutting down much of the economy. And the military is distancing itself from Mugabe as well.
The timing is intriguing from Washington's standpoint as well -- coming in the wake of the Iraq war, where Britain served as the United States' most steadfast ally. The lobbying efforts against Mugabe appear to be a way of returning the favor. Nevertheless, with Kansteiner and Straw not yet in the region, it remains to be seen how successful Washington's efforts will be. |
