I'm going to do the April 1st timing model update today as next week looks quite busy. As of the close March 28th, the model is up 17% vs the 7% increase of the qqq. The current position is 25% short. Any sharp rise in the market from this point is very likely to generate a signal to increase the short position. As an example, the Nasdaq new lows are down to just 30 as of Friday. If the market rises and the new lows dropped down to the 10-15 range, the market would almost certainly be near a significant correction.
stockcharts.com[e,a]daclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14]&pref=G
Below are the timing model trades to date this year:
- Started year at 50% long with QQQ at $24.37: 2052 QQQ, $49,983 Cash
- Jan 15 went to 25% short at $27.29: Short 971 QQQ, $79,463 cash.
- Jan 28 went to 50% long at $24.80: long 2185 QQQ, $54,180 cash
- Jan 31 went to 100% long at $24.12: long 4431 QQQ
- March 14th went from 100% long to 50% long at the open at $25.80. Now at $57137 in cash and 2216 shares QQQ.
- March 18th went to 100% cash at the open at $26.88. Now at $116,693 cash.
- March 20th went to 25% short at the open at $26.51. Now at 1100 QQQ short and $87,510 cash.
As of close March 28th at qqq of $26.08, Timing model year-to-date is up 17% vs QQQ up 7%.
Tom |
