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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 299.48

-4.8%

Dec 12 4:00 PM EST

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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (845)	7/23/2001 9:57:50 PM
From: Ian@SI	of 95574

Cary, We really don't know what happened in the individual months. All we get to see is the 3 month moving average which may be seasonally adjusted in some unknown fashion. I haven't seen anything recently that explicitly states that it is or isn't seasonally adjusted. So I'm going from a 4 year old memory of investigating the data. Not a reliable indicator, unfortunately. In any case, it's quite possible that the raw numbers for the March and April bookings were in the $500M to $600M ball park. If so, for June Preliminary to come in at $700M+ implies that monthly actual bookings may have already started to rise. I don't know whether that's the case. Even if it is, doesn't mean that bookings will continue to rise short term. FWIW, [which is not much] Ian.

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