I am finding this hard to trade .
Updated 4/16 for Monday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 4/19
UP Above 10,460
DN Below 10,420
Upside Break
Dow trends slowly higher, breaks range to upside.
From prior commentary, "...The Dow is gearing up for a solid break from the range, but the direction is still in the air...An upside break through the top of the range at 10,430 will make for a serious rally. Watch the boundaries closely tomorrow..."
The Dow moved slowly higher throughout the session today, eventually getting an upside break from the trading range at 10,430, which increased the day's momentum. Today's upmove was good for 55 points and may continue higher Monday.
Looking at the 15 Minute Chart shows that the Dow has formed a very tight consolidation at the highs of today's upmove from 10,420 to 10,460. The consolidation has formed above resistance, which makes a solid case for an upside continuation Monday. Watch for a break through 10,460 to indicate that another push higher will occur.
Otherwise, a downside break from the consolidation at 10,420 will make for another wave lower within the wide trading range. Watch this level closely, as a break could push the index back down toward recent lows at 10,320.
Short Term Dow
Short term, the Dow has formed a tight consolidation at the highs of the 5 Minute Chart from 10,420 to 10,460. Watch for a break from this range for direction at the Open.
Medium Term Dow
In the medium term, we entered the market Long today at 10,440 and are still in the trade. We will continue to hold stops at 10,420, and will stay Long above 10,460. We will enter Shorts below 10,420, using 20 point stops.
NASDAQ & S&P
The NASDAQ held within its clear downtrend today, while the S&P is holding near the upper boundary of its trading range. Each index provides clear boundaries to watch for Monday's trading. *
Summary
The Dow pushed slowly, but steadily off the lows this morning, which led to an upside break through resistance at 10,430. Look for continued strength Monday, should the consolidation be broken to the upside. Otherwise, a downside break will make for another move lower within the range.
Thanks for listening, and Good luck in your trading..
Ed Downs
edowns@nirvsys.com
with assistance from..
Frank Ochoa, Market Analyst
fochoa@nirvsys.com
** Note: We are now posting Index entries and exits in Real Time, through our new Intraday Index Alerts service. To learn more about the service, visit SignalWatch.com and select Intraday Alerts from the main navigation bar. - SW Team
_________________________
Rules and Definitions
Dow 15 Minute Chart
Dow 60 Minute Chart
Dow Daily Chart
Dow Weekly Chart
Legend
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
All contents © 1999-2003 Nirvana Systems, Inc. unless otherwise noted.
OmniTrader, VisualTrader, ARM2, and SignalWatch are trademarks of:
Nirvana Systems, Inc.
3415 Greystone Drive, Suite 205
Austin, Texas 78731 USA
Phone: 512-345-2545 Fax: 512-345-4225 |
