If JA is supposed to be some type of a genius then I await his plan B. Personally, I think the MMDS rights are worth a mint and the concept of delivering data and video in this method still has validity. I see it primarily as a technology for urban and suburban areas where it can be deployed cost effectively. I know the MCI and TCI are increasing their DBS efforts with smaller dishes, but I still see DBS better suited for rural areas. There are millions of folks in such setting who don't have access to CATV and many broadcast channels. No matter what the DBS folks say, I think the local channels are very important. That is where MMDS can come in. Bundling it with data, and maybe voice, services will make it that much more attractive.
With that said, the next question "can CAWS pull it off?" All we have
seen to date with them have been promises never delivered. Much was
BANX's fault, but if to date CAWS has yet to deliver the 75% penetration rate promised then they are to blame too.
Does CAWS have the financial resources to do many markets alone? I
don't think so (as mentioned below, liquidity will soon become a
problem).
Do the have the technical expertise to design and engineer such
systems? I think the answer is yet.
Do they have to programming ability on their own? Probably not. A
partner, such as TCI, Echostar or PrimeStar would be needed.
Do they have the marketing and public relations skills necessary? I
think we can all answer that.
Do they have the personnel and sales experience necessary to sell such
services, do installs. and provide customer service in large markets?
Probably not.
Do they have any name recognition and credibility to the typical
consumer? ABSOLUTELY NOT.
Can they raise additional money through bonds or loans? Doubtful. Theyare probably a laughing stock on the street right now and probably would be a high credit risk. BANX claiming the technology does not work well and the NY Times saying it is fatally flawed" does not help.
Thus, in my opinion they need to do three things.
1. Finish up with BANX. If BANX wants to proceed in Boston and VA
Beach, fine. Let them, but move on with the other markets.
2. Sell of some of their MMDS rights in smaller markets to raise funds.
3. Find a financially solvent, well known programming and sales
partner. Some of the DBS services, and possibly cable services, may be interested (except TCI--they seem to be having their own internal money problems).
THEY ALSO MUST MOVE IMMEDIATELY AND IN A BIG WAY.
big question is, can he go new direction
quickly and successfully? |
