1. the 9/01 cash isn't theirs. debentures. it works for drug development as though they had issued shares. unless it doesn't.
2. there is lingering doubt about the one trial that failed to reach significance on an intent to treat basis. It was highly significant, nonetheless, for patients that were picornavirus-positive.
3. many believe that reimbursement issues would be tough, given marketing approval.
4. Soros has sold a few of his shares, probably spooking some investors.
5. while the HCV program is alive and well, 50406 is kaput. As Cacaito has argued, RSV therapy, as opposed to prophylaxis, is a tough trial to design and execute.
This is brave new world stuff. The largest market is the guy/gal who would otherwise be 100% in a few days. FDA isn't used to dealing with stuff like this.
Penetrance and reimbursement..... would I buy it if I had to pay $50 out of my own pocket? Yes. Would I use it if I had a cold and my physician wrote me a prescription? Maybe, but maybe I'd save it for the next time that one of the kids came home with a sore throat -- maybe I'd save it to prophylax with. The company is only in phase II with transmission study. What does FDA do about people like me, who want the drug approved but who wouldn't use it according to label?
Just some thoughts, perhaps to be continued. The company could be a screaming bargain, but that's not readily apparent at this time. When 50406 was alive, the potential near-term leverage was greater. |
