With reference to the guru list I was a bit surprised, at some of the names on the bottom. The list could be pure BS, but for some reason I doubt it is, and in fact it may contain some truth.
One thing noticed is that more than one name at the bottom seem to be in the commodity and gold bug camp, and at the same time are currently in or would like to be in the general market bear cap.
Take Russell as a classic example.
Refrained from calling a top ... then as soon as a possibility appeared, came out with a top call. Bear market I believe he said. I have not looked of recent, but I also suspect we have the 'shorts' piling on already, or getting prepared to.
It has crossed my mind that Mr. Market in the longer term sense may have some more tricks to play, and in particular on some of these guys at the bottom of the guru list.
If we have a rising dollar in progress, or soon coming our way, what would that do to the commodity and possibly the pm sectors? If we take that and couple it with a very mild global recession would that not add fuel to the fire? But then we have the CB's priming the pump, keeping the whole pot on simmer so to speak. Given all the other factors would it not be possible for a strong fear driven market pull back, but followed yet by another launch up, after the dust settles. I happen to think that if oil goes back the 60 dollar area, for example, the general market would like that fairly well. Couple that with yet lower LT rates thanks to Ben, and viola, we might have the flowers come in full blossum once again.
Another thing has been knawing on me a bit as well .... the credit problems may be getting to be a bit long in the tooth (old news). Seems like the market would have led this down more than it seems to have done so, if indeed it is going to go deep in the drink.
The data will come in over the next couple of months, me thinks, to shed more light on the longer term. I tell you, even ole Tol here is starting to show some LT divergence. We should have a good knock down here (more on this later), but if Tol holds the 18 area, it might just launch in a very nice corrective counter trend wave up, sometime in oh say first quarter of '08. |
