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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: stan_hughes who wrote (85840)	9/3/2007 1:12:17 PM
From: bart13	Read Replies (1) of 110194

So, as reliable predictors go, methinks it's back to the drawing board for this one The closest recession predictor that I've found is a combination of the yield curve (10-3) and the CPI adjusted changes in monetary base (credit to Kasriel of Northern Trust). It hasn't missed since 1960 and hasn't generated any false signals either.

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