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Biotech / Medical : XOMA. Bull or Bear?
XOMA 25.96-2.2%1:52 PM EST
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To: Cacaito who wrote (8601)2/3/1999 4:53:00 PM
From: aknahow  Read Replies (1) of 17367
 
From an e-mail I understand it really was two arms. the treatment arm was stratified by place on the Glascow scale. 8-11 and 12-15. I suppose that the results are then compared to those who fell in either area in the placebo arm. I think the trial would have gone on forever if they needed to get 116 in each of the two different scale areas.

Now I agree you are probably right about the mortality rate remaining high in the placebo arm, but it is more conservative to assume some reduction given various statements made in the U.K. about reducing mortality by 50% when treatment is provided quickly. These statements were unsupported by data, and I did not place much weight on them. But I can't ignore them either.

If mortality is still 20% in the placebo group and they had trouble reaching whatever the mortality target was then this is very bullish. for this reason I think it is better to temper ones bullishness by assuming some reduction.

Now even though I seem to have been unable to convince you that there was a Mortality target, there was one. And if the original thoughts about the trial by XOMA and the FDA thought around 200 subjects were needed I think one can construct a logical range for the target. 35 at the low to 45 at the high range fit with various mortality assumptions for the placebo arm combined with the treatment arm.

I am trying to help you see why they must be close and why recruitment probably will not continue to 450. Call Ellen. Two arms, not three but you are correct about stratification of the treatment arm.
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