Points of interest.
1. The Genetic Engineering News (GEN) story (Nov. 15) actually was reporting on bioinformatics, not genomics, companies. FWIW, a quote, 'What is certain is that scientific and technological advances will push bioinformatics development ahead at a very rapid rate as pharmaceutical and biotech firms accelerate their quest for new drug candidates.' The GEN bioinformatics index includes Ariad and all the other companies in my 'performance' post. Needless to say, Ariad has done what is now being labeled 'bioinformatics' long before the HMR-genomics center, and will continue long after the completion of the buyout. Thus it is wholly appropriate for Ariad to be included in this index.
2. To claim knowledge of causes of a stock's behavior is pretentious, at a minimum. There is no doubt the burden of the floorless weighed heavily on the stock as 1999 wore on. To claim that the run from $0.50 to $7.00 in 12 weeks solely as a result of lifting of the floorless is another matter. The degree of the climb - which may well still be in progress - indicates a number of factors: 1. That Ariad is legitimately classed as a company involved in bioinformatics and that it may play a significant role utilizing the information from the genome project. Thus it was indeed possible to value Ariad now, and that valuation can, at least in part, be measured against one of the most highly valued sectors of biotechnology. I too believe a stock rebound was in the cards; however, this degree of rebound was not preordained unless the company possessed a promising technology and a leveraged strategy. 2. That people remain mostly clueless about ARGENT. Each time some new details emerge at some high profile meeting, the stock responds as if the whole concept is novel. This thread is a perfect example: I too went back to look for the discussion of the floorless and, in the process, tried to absorb the discussion of Ariad's science. How well do people here understand ARGENT and all of Ariad's other work? Well there was a very lively discussion of the convertible, at one point 20-30 posts per day. There was essentially no discussion of the science! Are people even aware of the hidden gem that lies in that PNAS paper this fall? Is anyone aware just how dramatically bundling the activators improved the performance of ARGENT? The enhancement in sensitivity permits the system to work at vector infectivity levels significantly lower than prior systems. If you appreciate this advance you know it places ARGENT at a tremendous advantage over just about any other system. I claim people are clueless about ARGENT because no one REALLY ever talks about it: they pay it lip service and then go on to something financial. So I claim part of the move of the stock is the 3rd, 4th, 5th iteration of the realization of a what a powerful reagent it really is. If a real discussion of the science behind ARGENT ever occurred on this thread, I believe many of you would begin to realize that as well.
It is my contention that if ARGENT had been thoroughly appreciated by many investors, they would have known it would not be 'allowed' to fall by the wayside. Thus HMR's buyout of the genomics center, which essentially saved Ariad, may have been orchestrated so that HMR could partner with Ariad for ARGENT. This would make sense since HMR was probably more familiar with ARGENT than any other pharma. And the terms were SO generous. And if investors had been more familiar with ARGENT they may have decided to buy in at $0.50 or $1.00 since the would have understood ARGENT would not simply fade away.
And regarding the nuances etc. of ARGENT, I suggest a call be placed to either Crabtree or Schreiber to confirm your concerns about complexities. The fact is the system is quite simple and straightforward - involving the FK- binding protein family, the p65 moiety of NF-kB, and a DNA-binding motif. The weak link is the step not only completely independent of ARGENT, but independent of Ariad too. This is the clinical 'gene therapy'. Gelsinger's death was not just unfortunate; it was unnecessary. I'm not sure of Wilson's status at the moment but there are sure to be some serious repercussions at Penn. Some have spoken strongly that Ariad should actively seek another partner. I'm not so sure...since the ramifications of this tragedy will be felt in all GT centers. And transitioning to a new team would be a delay Ariad cannot not afford. This is a situation that is certainly not unique to Ariad.
Since Berger now expects to partner ARGENT in the very near future (3 months?) - at a level similar to the genomics arrangement - I believe the company's financial position is not only strong today, but will soon be bolstered to become vibrant for an extended period. |
