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Technology Stocks : Wind River going up, up, up!
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To: Ramsey Su who wrote (8657)10/14/2000 8:52:45 PM
From: tinkershaw   of 10309
 
WIND (EST Revs - last 2Q + next 2Q) $428,438,200 (5 YR Rev CAGR) 39% (Annual stock dilution) 4% (Net margin in 2005)20.0% EPS 2005 ($5.07) (Terminal revenues in 2005) $2,223,116

This may show up rather messy, but I'd like to use this as a baseline for WIND's potential over the next 5 years. My model predictions a 5 year revenue CAGR of 39%, accounts for stock dilution, and assumes a 20% net margin at the end of the period.

As you can see, if WIND can just pull off this relatively minor business scenario we are all in for some excellent returns going forward. What is unknown is what sort of upside potential may exist, if per se WIND could accelerate top line growth to 50% per annun and/or raise the 20% net margin.

Tinker
P.S. at a 50 P/E in 2005 we get a 533% return just on this mild business scenario. Lets see if we can find some upside.
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