Zeev's Turnips - No Politics Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics

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To: LTK007 who wrote (86476)	6/26/2002 5:26:57 PM
From: Steve Huskey	Read Replies (2) of 99280

Actually, as we near the end of the bear market, I believe it is time for alot of people to take a good look at their thinking. Everyone tends to think of the US market in terms of "bull" or "bear", and I believe this may not be the best course of action over the next several years. To relate this analogy to football :> if you throw a forward pass the result is not always a touchdown or interception. You can also have an incompletion. Take a look at the Japanese stock market to see what I mean. After the great bull and the great bear the market went into a TRADING RANGE. This is something I believe has to be incorporated into our thinking at this point. Dont be too quick to don the bull suit 100%. There are several factors supporting this. 1) Rising interest rates - they have to go up. 2) Lack of foreign money coming into our markets - the scandals dont help this much. 3) Falling US Dollar - this may change but I also believe that this supports higher interest rates. 4) 401K Plans - This may have changed the stock market forever. I would like to see some more discussion on this. Its like a transfusion.. money out of everyones paycheck supporting the market. Does anyone know a website that gives info on money coming into and out of mutual funds? If you swing or short term trade only, it probably wont matter much. But if you have a "core" of stocks that you are planning to hold through the coming "bull market", you may do better by using a money management strategy on them. Have you ever read " How to make a million dollars in the stock market automatically" ? Disregard the hype title. Its a great book based on a simple spreadsheet formula. It forces you to sell on the way up and buy on the way down. It also tells you exactly how many shares for each transaction and only acts 1x per month. Starting this strategy now could improve the results of one's core holdings dramatically. It turns good 10 - 20% yearly gains into sensational 50 - 100% gains, if we do get a trading range. Anyway, my comments are to help a few out there who will listen and do some introspection that they may need to alter their thinking a little for the future of the stock market. It may lead to greater profits and less confusion. Regards Steve

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