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Technology Stocks : Discuss Year 2000 Issues
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To: Bill Fischofer who wrote (82)8/4/1997 11:16:00 AM
From: Bill Ounce   of 9818
 
I think we can assume that "bad things" will happen with the Y2K changeover, but there many of unknowns, such as exactly how bad it will get, and for how long.

Of all the Y2K links on the Internet, Ed Yourdon's Fallback Manuscript (http://www.yourdon.com/books/fallback/fallbackhome.html)is my favorite because he admits that there are so many possible outcomes.

"Fear merchants", dwell on the worst possible situation that they can imagine, then proclaim that to be the most likely scenario. This is how I view the Gary North's commentary on his Year 2000 web links. That's why I believe Ed Yourdon's material is much superior.

My personal fear is that the entitlement programs will not function, which could easily lead to widespread urban rioting. (I am assuming that our governments are too inefficient to become Y2K compliant on time) Luckily, a moderating factor is that people will not get really upset until they are starving. So the timing of related "bad things" for this possible problem is not January 1, but several weeks later. With a leap of faith, I could envision governments not in "denial mode" but instead proactively using the National Guard to distribute food preventing the riots in the first place. Lots of possible outcomes here...
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