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Technology Stocks : Aladdin Knowledge Systems (ALDN)

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To: FrLR who wrote (85)8/7/1997 1:05:00 PM
From: Dr. J   of 351
 
Yep. See my post #82.

I talked to the CFO this morning for some clarification of the conference call. The most interesting thing is that the blips in margins (R&D and G&A) were temporary, and should settle back down to Q1 type levels in absolute terms. S&M may grow a little.

Also, Q3 is historically weak (because the s/w industry is generally weak in Q3) . Q4 should be good, because they are expecting to ship $500K of ASE (the Smart Card product).

Finally, the beneficial tax rate (6%) in Q1 and Q2 probably won't last; the CFO suggested 10% was a better long term number to use.

In comparison to Aladdin's great quarter, Rainbow (the #1 in the industry) only grew their s/w protection business by 8%. Looks like they are not very focused on it at the moment.

All in all, my spreadsheet suggests earnings of 89c this year, which could justify a price of $22 in early 1998, so I agree with your predictions. Plus, there is big upside from the Smart Card business is ASE is successful.
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