Charles, This is a copy of an analyst forum I subscribe to.
I thought it showed a nice follow-up to your posting.
Regards,
Ron
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February 25, 1998
Intense Diplomacy in Wake of Iraqi Crisis
As the Iraqi crisis winds down, there is intense diplomatic activity
underway throughout the region. A high-level Iranian delegation is
continuing its visit to Saudi Arabia, while Turkish officials visit
Damascus and the Greek Foreign Minister has met with Egyptian President
Hosni Mubarak and other Egyptian officials. Each meeting has focused on
the state of the world after UN Secretary General Kofi Annan's compromise
permitted the United States to end its direct confrontation with Iraq. At
issue: the geopolitics of the Middle East.
The Iranian-Saudi talks took some strange twists during the past 24 hours.
At first, it was expected that former President Rasfanjani would remain for
ten days while Iran's oil minister would remain until Tuesday, carrying out
a pilgrimage to Mecca on Wednesday. Then it was reported that the oil
minister would be leaving a day early, and that a communique would be
released on Monday. No communique was released, but stories appeared in
Iranian newspapers on Tuesday, revealing that Saudi Arabia had attempted to
blackmail Iran at OPEC negotiations in November, 1997, by threatening to
take the lid off of its oil production unless the Iranians agreed to higher
quotas for Saudi Arabia. So it appeared that the talks had broken down in
a rather nasty way. Then it was revealed that the talks hadn't broken down
but were continuing, although it was not clear how long the talks would
last or who was participating on the Iranian side.
Now, all of this could have been merely a case of poor public relations
coordination. But it appears to us that the news reveals extremely
important and tense negotiations underway. Two issues have intersected.
Iran wants to reverse the results of the Iran-Iraq War, recover lost
territory, and become the preeminent power in the Persian Gulf. The Saudis
are less than enthusiastic about the prospect, to say the least, but badly
want Iranian cooperation in attempts to stabilize global oil prices. The
Iranians have mixed feelings on this, since there are geopolitical
advantages to them in having the Gulf States economically weakened. So
each wants something from the other and the United States is no longer a
factor in their consideration.
Underlying this is a geopolitical nightmare for Saudi Arabia. The Middle
East is now divided between a Turkish-Israeli bloc and a Greek-Syrian-Iraqi
bloc. Immediately after Annan's agreement was announced, the Turkish
foreign minister went to Damascus, clearly trying to leverage Syria out of
the alliance--an unlikely prospect. Then the Greek foreign minister
traveled to Cairo on a more plausible mission--recruiting Egypt into the
alliance. Greece would welcome Egyptian support on the Cyprus issue. More
important, Egypt could increase the military vulnerability of Israel,
thereby increasing Turkey's isolation. Egypt, furious with Israel,
irritated at the United States, and vulnerable to Islamic fundamentalists,
might see such a relationship as potentially attractive.
This would be disastrous for the Saudis, who would then be exposed to
internal unrest due to economic stress and religious and tribal dissent,
and to external pressure from an emboldened Iraq. Since no one can be sure
how Egyptian policy will evolve in the coming months, the Saudis are
confronted with some extremely unpalatable choices, one of which involves
cutting a deal with the Iranians.
A number of things are clear. First, the regional credibility of the
United States is at an all-time low. No one really even knows what the
U.S. wants or what they might want the U.S. to do. With the U.S. no longer
containing conflicts in the region, we expect the Greco-Turkish
confrontation over Cyprus to intensify and even spread. This is a good
time for the Greeks to press their case against Turkey, with Turkey's main
patron unlikely to flex its muscles again very soon. We expect the
Iranians to have enough leverage with the Saudis to emerge with some sort
of deal involving strategic cooperation and parallel policies on oil
prices.
Oddly, the Iranians are among the big winners in this crisis. They have
become the wild card in the region, courted by everyone, owned by no one.
Iran is now busily spinning its own web, trying to replace the United
States as Saudi Arabia's guarantor. Washington, having conspired with
Tehran, is now discovering the price of failed conspiracy. It has
emboldened and enabled Iran. Now that the United States has managed to
simultaneously baffle and terrify everyone in the region, the Iranians have
become the thoughtful and moderate alternative. That is an incredible
achievement on the part of the United States and will be a legacy
dominating the region in the coming months. |
