You're right, yesterday's big volume is a very bullish sign. And today's continued upmove (that is, not even a partial retrace), indicates this rally may have legs. I am holding my entire position for now.
My point way that a lot of people bought a lot of shares at much higher levels, over the last 2 years, and we have not seen enough volume yet at these lower levels, to shake out those weak hands. They know they made a bad decision, they desperately want their money back (or at least part of it), and they will be selling the rallies repeatedly on NTAP, on the way up. This is basic investor psychology, a well-proven pattern of investor behavior. It means the upturn is going to have lots of big dips, just as the decline had several impressive rallies. NTAP will continue to be a hugely volatile stock.
Once this rally peaks (I'm guessing between 19 and 29), I expect at least a 50% retrace, and more likely a complete retrace, forming a double bottom with recent lows. I label this a guess. Since I know the limits of my ability to predict the future (especially the short-term future), I will do all my buying and selling in increments.
Today looks like it's going to be another up day on big volume. |
