If ATT wants to go with a migration to GSM 2.5G as a route to WCDMA, that is fine with me. If DoCoMO is going to invest $10 billion in AWE, they are going to make sure they go with WCDMA to provide global roaming in Japan, Korea, and the US. Since QCOM has already concluded it's 3G WCDMA licenses with every major equipment maker in Japan, Korea, and the US, your argument that QCOM will not benefit from WCDMA is utterly ridiculous. I would not make an equally insane suggestion that QCOM will benefit from EDGE or GPRS.
You main argument against QCOM is that there are no essential CDMA patents relevant to WCDMA. Apart from some minute details regarding chip speed, there is no difference between a CDMA2000 air interface and a WCDMA air interface. QCOM has already made those adjustments for it's WCDMA ASIC portfolio. QCOM has already positioned itself for the globalization of 3G CDMA. Here is how I see the 3G roadmap.
1) cdmaOne carriers will migrate directly to WCDMA or CDMA2000>
2) UMTS networks will build WCDMA air interfaces directly on GSM MAP baseband networks.
3) GSM and TDMA operators will upgrade to GPRS and EDGE to prepare their networks for packet data. Then, they will upgrade their networks to WCDMA.
3.5) GSM and TDMA operators will upgrade to CDMA2000 or WCDMA directly.
All of these scenarios result in CDMA2000 or WCDMA. Since QCOM has the same revenue opportunities for ASIC products and royalties from handset and infrastructure vendors in WCMDA or CDMA2000, the future cash flow deriving from the globalization of 3G CDMA networks is going to benefit Qualcomm sooner or later. Obviously, in the case of AWE, it is going to be later.
My main problem with Nokia and the GSM empire is that they have been excluded from competition. There is a void of compeition in the US for TDMA and GSM handsets. The transition to 3G CDMA is a clear pathway to open compeition. When AWE upgrades to WCDMA, they are going to be competing with every company under the sun. These intermediate known as EDGE and GPRS are brilliant ways for AWE to sustain it's monopoly for another 12 months. However, the conversion of the 375 million GSM customers to a globalized CDMA2000/WCDMA platform for the air interface is going to a huge opportunity for Qualcomm to expand the installed base of 75 million CDMA users today. |
