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Technology Stocks : Wind River going up, up, up!

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To: peter grossman who wrote (8951)12/25/2000 12:30:53 PM
From: Mkilloran   of 10309
 
Peter ...great job on the future revenues projections.
One area that I think you have underestimated is settop boxes...only 3 million for 2001.
Compared to cable modems with the same number for 2001.

Settop boxes are being stalled at a rate 3 to 1 to cable modems. Vendors like SFA are growing capacity by 100% in 2001 to 5 million units, many more consumer electronic companies are entering the settop market, Sony, etc..
Today MOT is leader.

Here's a survey of USA Interactive TV market which requires settop boxes to be installed before these services can be launched:
As an example AT&T's TCI cable will have close to 3 million settop boxes installed by 12/31/2000 and are expected to start ITV trials in Jan 2001...followed by ITV launch across their network later in 2001.
Time Warner is installing at a rate of 45,000 a week.

Interactive TV Households
(in millions)

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

iTV Households 1.0 5.2 11.6 19.9 29.8 41.1

Source: The Strategis Group, Inc.

Worldwide there are over 1 billion TV's that will migrate to digital services over the next 10-12 years..external settop boxes today, intergrated settop boxes/digital tv's in the future.
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