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Strategies & Market Trends : Interest rate rise will trigger market crash / correction

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To: Arthur Tang who wrote (8)2/27/1997 1:40:00 PM
From: Bill Ounce   of 52
 
Thanks Arthur, you have much greater faith than I do.

>>>World situation is not the same any more, because the client state competition is gone. Mutual investment prevents irrational behavior.<<<

Tee hee hee. People are sometimes rational, sometimes not. Countries with a vibrant economies elect socialist governments that ruin them. In the USA the most irrational people get elected to manage the economy & tax codes. How about that Helms-Burton law? How about the EU threatening to block the Boeing MD merger to protect their socialist Airbus? New competitions are replacing the old ones.

>>>Very hard to get mad at some one, who is still your investor.<<<

People frequently resent foreign investors. Come to think of it, didn't the Cubans get so upset with foreign investors (and their control) that it was a contributing factor to their revolution?

You do bring up an important point though. If other countries lose confidence in USA, then they stop paying our debt. We have to raise interest rates to postpone paying our bills. Sounds like a good argument for a balanced budget. :-)

If other countries truely lose confidence in USA, they stop buying bonds plus sell their holdings. A multiplicative domino effect! Interest rates are risen to sell unpopular bonds, which causes stocks to fall further, which causes more loss of confidence which generates more selling, ... Not a crash, but one hell of a sustained bear market. Could an elected official doing something really stupid cause this?
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