Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
Sunday, September 05, 2010 Email to a Friend ShareThis.Advertisement
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows that 24% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Forty-seven percent (47%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -23 (see trends).
That’s the highest level of Strong Disapproval and the lowest Approval Index daily rating yet recorded for this president. However, while the daily ratings are sometime volatile, a Month-by-Month review of the president’s numbers continues to show a high degree of stability. On a full-month basis, the Presidential Approval Index has stayed between -14 and -17 for eight of the past nine months.
Check out our review of last week’s key polls to see What They Told Us.
The Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Balance of Power shows Democrats with a 48-45 advantage while seven races remain Toss-Ups (California, Colorado, Illinois, Nevada, Ohio Washington, and Wisconsin).
The Rasmussen Reports Gubernatorial Scorecard projects 27 Governorships for the GOP, 16 for the Democrats, and seven Toss-Ups (Florida, Illinois, Maryland, New Mexico, Oregon, Vermont, and Wisconsin).
Five percent (5%) of Americans say the summer of 2010 was the best ever. Another 45% rate it as good or excellent. That’s a better rating than the summer of 2009.
The Presidential Approval Index is calculated by subtracting the number who Strongly Disapprove from the number who Strongly Approve. It is updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update). Updates are also available on Twitter and Facebook.
Overall, 42% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's performance. This matches the lowest approval rating yet measured for President Obama. Fifty-seven percent (57%) now disapprove. The president’s ratings on the economy, national security, and other issues are updated for Platinum Members on the Rasmussen Reports By the Numbers page.
A new book by Scott Rasmussen and Doug Schoen addresses the broader discontent roiling the political landscape this year. MAD AS HELL: How the Tea Party Movement Is Fundamentally Remaking Our Two-Party System , published by Harper-Collins, will be released September 14. It can be pre-ordered at Amazon.com, Barnes and Noble, Borders, and other outlets.
A Wall Street Journal profile calls Scott Rasmussen “America’s Insurgent Pollster.”
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A commentary by Larry Sabato projects the Republicans will pick up 47 House seats, 8 Senate seats, and 8 Governorships. These numbers reflect a significant deterioration for the Democrats. The number of Republicans in the nation grew by two percentage points over the past month while the number of Democrats slipped a bit. As a result, the GOP has closed the partisan gap to the smallest margin in five years. Seventy-five percent (75%) believe that Congress should cut its own pay until the budget is balanced.
In a book released earlier this year, Scott observed that, "The gap between Americans who want to govern themselves and politicians who want to rule over them may be as big today as the gap between the colonies and England during the 18th century." In Search of Self-Governance is available at Rasmussen Reports and Amazon.com.
The Rasmussen Reports Media Meter shows that media coverage of President Obama has been 50% positive over the past week. It remains fascinating to watch the volatility of media coverage concerning the president while public opinion remains stable. Platinum Members can review coverage of the president by individual major media outlets.
If you'd like Scott to speak at your conference or event, contact Premiere Speakers Bureau.
Scott has published several recent Wall Street Journal columns including "Why Obama Can't Move the Health Care Numbers" and how Obama won the White House by campaigning like Ronald Reagan. He has also written an overview of the health care reform debate, a look at how President Obama is losing independent voters, and was the first to note the decline in the president's approval ratings.
You can also learn about Scott's favorite place on earth and his time working with hockey legend Gordie Howe.
It is important to remember that the Rasmussen Reports job approval ratings are based upon a sample of likely voters. Some other firms base their approval ratings on samples of all adults. President Obama's numbers are always several points higher in a poll of adults rather than likely voters. That's because some of the president's most enthusiastic supporters, such as young adults, are less likely to turn out to vote. It is also important to check the details of question wording when comparing approval ratings from different firms.
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Rasmussen Reports has been a pioneer in the use of automated telephone polling techniques, but many other firms still utilize their own operator-assisted technology (see methodology). Pollsters for Presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton have cited our "unchallenged record for both integrity and accuracy."
The Pew Center noted that Rasmussen Reports beat traditional media in covering Scott Brown's upset win in Massachusetts earlier this year: "It was polling-not journalistic reporting-that caught the wave in the race to succeed Massachusetts Senator Edward M. Kennedy." Rasmussen Reports was also the first to show Joe Sestak catching Arlen Specter in the Pennsylvania Democratic Primary race this year.
In the 2009 New Jersey Governor's race, automated polls tended to be more accurate than operator-assisted polling techniques. On reviewing the state polling results from 2009, Mickey Kaus offered this assessment, "If you have a choice between Rasmussen and, say, the prestigious N.Y. Times, go with Rasmussen!"
In 2008, Obama won 53%-46% and our final poll showed Obama winning 52% to 46%. While we were pleased with the final result, Rasmussen Reports was especially pleased with the stability of our results. On every single day for the last six weeks of the campaign, our daily tracking showed Obama with a stable and solid lead attracting more than 50% of the vote.
We also have provided a summary of our 2008 state-by-state presidential results for your review.
In 2004 George W. Bush received 50.7% of the vote while John Kerry earned 48.3%. Rasmussen Reports polling projected that Bush would win 50.2% to 48.5%. We were the only firm to project both candidates' totals within half a percentage point by (see our 2004 results).
See also our 2008 state results for Senate and governor.
See 2006 results for Senate and Governor.
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error-for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters--is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for full-week results are available for Platinum Members.
Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large (see methodology). Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. While partisan affiliation is generally quite stable over time, there are a fair number of people who waver between allegiance to a particular party or independent status. Since the November 2008 election, the number of Democrats in the country has declined while the number of unaffiliated voters has grown.
Our baseline targets are established based upon separate survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews) and targets are updated monthly. Currently, the baseline targets for the adult population are 35.3% Democrats, 32.9% Republicans, and 31.8% unaffiliated. Likely voter samples typically show a slightly smaller advantage for the Democrats
A review of last week's key polls is posted each Saturday morning.
We also invite you to review other recent demographic highlights from the tracking polls. To get a sense of longer-term trends, check out our month-by-month review of the president's numbers.
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