Cuba officially has one of the fastest-growing economies in Latin
America. But now that the economy is doing better, Castro is
picking fights with old friends and trading partners, while
threatening to roll back de facto dollarization in a bid to
restrict remittances to the island. This is because the greatest
threat to Castro's regime is not the U.S. trade embargo, but a
freely traded dollar in Cuba.
Analysis
Cuba officially has one of the fastest-growing economies in Latin
America. According to the Economic Commission for Latin America
and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Cuba's economy grew 6.2 percent in
1999 and 5.5 percent in 2000. ECLAC's data indicate the Cuban
economy grew at a faster rate in 2000 than did four of the six
largest economies in the region.
A decade after the collapse of the Soviet Union deprived Cuba of
more than $6 billion a year in subsidies, Fidel Castro has
successfully kept his dictatorship afloat - while making fewer
economic and political concessions than any other communist state
in the world.
Castro is looking for ways to eliminate the dual currency system.
He understands that the real long-term threat to his regime is
not the U.S. trade embargo, but a freely traded U.S. dollar. If
Castro can control the circulation of hard currency, he can
consolidate economic control, thereby strengthening his political
grip. Castro will continue acting in ways calculated to prolong
the U.S. trade embargo against Cuba because the embargo helps
perpetuate his one-man regime indefinitely.
*********** TO READ THE REST OF THIS ARTICLE CLICK HERE ***********
stratfor.com
___________________________________________________________________
<<<<<<<<<<<<<< SUBSCRIBE TO BECOME A MEMBER TODAY!>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Stratfor.com introduces new, expanded analysis for readers seeking
more insight on the entire range of global affairs. Our new site
features more intelligence on more subjects, easier navigation and
expanded coverage.
stratfor.com
<<<<<<<<<<<<<< SUBSCRIBE TO BECOME A MEMBER TODAY!>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
___________________________________________________________________
CONTACTS AND CUSTOMER SERVICES:
STRATFOR.com
504 Lavaca, Suite 1100 Austin, TX 78701
Phone: 512-583-5000
Internet: stratfor.com
Email: info@stratfor.com
NOTICE:
While all e-mail from STRATFOR and its partners includes
an opportunity to opt out of future communications, you can
edit your information and preferences at any time. If you do
not wish to be contacted by STRATFOR, or its approved third
parties, regarding value-added benefits, products and services,
please follow the instructions to "unsubscribe" provided in all
e-mail messages.
SIGN-UP:
Get the free, daily Global Intelligence Update:
stratfor.com
You can stop receiving the GIU by clicking on:
stratfor.com
ADVERTISE:
For information on advertising in the GIU or any
section of the Stratfor.com website, please email us
at advertising@stratfor.com
====================================================
(c) 2001 Strategic Forecasting LLC. All rights reserved. |
