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Technology Stocks : The New QUALCOMM - Coming Into Buy Range
QCOM 180.90+2.1%Oct 31 9:30 AM EST

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To: Elroy who wrote (9074)7/31/2023 1:56:08 AM
From: Lance Bredvold  Read Replies (1) of 9129
 
"... so I'm missing something."

I really appreciate you're care in thinking the market is usually efficient over time, and you may be the one making an error in judgement.

On the other hand, you've been involved a long time, are a careful thinker, and I'm sure you have seen many instances where investors in a company (and particularly a company which has had a runup in stock price like MXL had in 2021) become blind to a dangerous situation like they appear to be in. Could be one of those wonderful opportunities which occasionally present themselves in an inefficient market. I'd bet on your judgement over the group of MXL owners.

What's the downside? I guess everyone just goes home and does the same business as they used to? I guess that puts SIMO at $40 to $50 after some initial disappointment perhaps. Up $7.00 or so Friday? MXL also up on the day after all this news came out. The upside seems much larger and, from your description, more likely to happen. I'd really expect the penalty to be paid giving SIMO a one time $5 or so bonus on their 35mm shares. So then the price you wind up with is that same $40-$50 plus $5. A drop from the price today but probably the most likely outcome and more than you had a few days earlier.

I doubt that the $83 price of SIMO attained one day was ever that realistic. And then, does SIMO really want to be tied to MXL that badly? Sure, it's a nice one time gain, and maybe the management of SIMO in Hong Kong will dominate the larger merged company. So they might really want the deal to go through, but I'll bet they are now questioning this Carlsbad California company's character. And wisdom.

It's been fun speculating. I don't know if I'll take a flyer with your old investment. It might offer a large bonus, but I suspect it won't be more than the penalty and maybe not even that. Probably should stay away. And that's the most common wise action in the stock market I've known.
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