The Common Misconceptions about Peak Oil
Oil Shale Will Save Us
"...I worked with a major oil company for 2 years trying to develop a way to commercialize oil shale. Trust me on this, it ain’t going to happen. Most oil companies know this. The few (one??) that don’t are totally deluded...."
beastsbelly.blogspot.com
Deep Water Basins Will Save Us
"...a lot of discovered volumes throughout the world are not on production yet. Much of this oil will be coming on in the next 5 years (Thunderhorse, Mad Dog, Atlantis, Tahiti, Great White, Bonga, Erha, Plutonio, Platina, Jubarte, Kikei, Gumusut, etc,); but what is being explored for now, and what is being found is of substantially different quality than those projects and the previous projects that are already on production.
In many basins, the fields being found now tend to be small, are in ultra-deep water (9000 ft or more), and/or are very deep below the ocean floor (20,000 ft). Many of the discoveries are in low-permeability reservoirs that won’t flow at high rates and/or contain highly viscous crude oil. Many of the current exploration programs are targeting reservoirs below a thick canopy (5000 ft) of sedimentary salt. These potential sub-salt accumulations are very difficult to image. The salt dramatically distorts the acoustic waves that provide the seismic images. Think of watching TV through four inch thick coke-bottle-lens glasses that got run over by a car.
Effectively everywhere that oil companies can think of to explore for oil on the planet has been tested with a drill bit. Where these deepwater accumulations tend to occur is no mystery – it is outboard of major river deltas where large sediment piles tend to accumulate. Those areas include outboard of the Mississippi, the Congo, the Niger, the Nile, etc. Some sedimentary basins, so far, have been big disappointments (the Amazon for example).
There is a limit to how far out in the ocean one can find this deepwater oil. Once you get too far away from where the sediment source is (mouth of a river) all you will find is a thin veneer of very fine-grained mud on the ocean floor. Below this is oceanic crust (think Hawaiian lava). Modern seismic data can image all of this.
I personally reviewed many deepwater prospects from recent lease bid rounds around the world. Maybe other people are seeing things that I am not, but even in a $60+/bbl world, most of this stuff does not look good. It doesn't matter if the price of oil is $1000/bbl if there are no hydrocarbons there.
Conclusion – Expect substantial ramp-up in deepwater production for the next five years, but then decline will set in. All of this is known by the experts. Deepwater production will not stave off Peak Oil."
beastsbelly.blogspot.com
Tar Sands Will Save Us
"...if there is so much of this stuff, why can’t it stave off peak oil? Good question. The answer is multi-fold...."
beastsbelly.blogspot.com |
