Precious Metals mutual funds (gold, silver, PGMs) Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Precious Metals mutual funds (gold, silver, PGMs)

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To: Wade who wrote (929)	6/5/2005 10:19:10 PM
From: Larry S.	Read Replies (1) of 972

Wade & Dan et al, Interesting observation Wade. I had been watching and concluded the same thing, that silver supplies must be running low. This is consistent with view of several gurus that silver will move faster than gold. However, there must be more to it. I find it hard to believe that the markets just discovered the shortage. The dramatic jump in rates must mean more than reserves in storage reaching a critical level. I attended the Gold Conference in NYC last week - 5/23 & 24. It was reasonably well attended but not nearly the crowd that attended when the markets were hot in the mid 90s. The majority view of the gurus that spoke was that in a bull market for PMs and bear market for the dollar but that we are in a correction that could last through this year. The Junior most recommended was Virginia Gold. The majority seemed less bullish on base metals but essentially everyone was bullish on Uranium. Strathmore was mentioned as much as any; though it was not alone. Prechter was the only one talking about a serious gold bear market but not near term. I taped a lot of the discussions and when I finish listening to and summarizing them I will post more info. Mark Skousen was the only one I recall being bullish on the economy. My memory is so bad that I can't trust it and I didn't take good notes. FWIW, Epstein took time out from working on his book and wrote an Economic Beat column in this week's Barron's. He continues to be optimistic about the economy. However, I don't think any are better than Paul Volcker and he recently stated: "I don't know of any country that has managed to consume and invest 6% more than it produces for long ... At some point, both central banks and private institutions will have had their fill of dollars. I don't know whether change will come with a bang or a whimper, whether sooner of later. But as things stand, it is more likely than not that it will be financial crises rather than policy foresight that will force the change." There were two articles recently in Barron's online making the bullish case for gold. Gold lease rates haven't told me anything; though I get the feeling that leased gold is no longer a significant factor in the markets. The rates are just very very low. So; I will get on with posting the Barron's GMI info for the past three weeks. The GMI/POG ratio: On 5/19, the Barron's GMI was 559.44 up from the previous week's 547.82. With the POG down at 418.00(5/20), the ratio was up at 1.34. On 5/26, the Barron's GMI was 570.62 up from the previous week's 559.44. With the POG up at 418.25 (5/20), the ratio was up at 1.36. On 6/02, the Barron's GMI was 598.06 up from the previous week's 570.62. With the POG up at 23.55(6/03), the ratio was up at 1.41. The ratio has moved up in the middle range but it doesn't suggest strongly a rise or drop in the POG. It is clear that there is little speculation behind the price of stocks at this time. The ratio a year ago was 1.43, reflecting the fact that the optimism had been taken out of the markets.

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