Pat,
I agree that V3 will likely be out ahead of schedule, though I have no sources- just a "preponderance of evidence"
As for selling 2 months ago, I don't know if things are really turning up that much...ATI, the biggest of guns in our new arena-OEM land- has for the first time a capable chip. And it appears to be ahead of schedule- I wasn't expecting it until Q1 '99. Two big OEM suppliers own a chunk of nVidia's soul, which can't be good, and an nVidia IPO is somewhat immanent- conditions certainly better than two months ago.
Though V3 is stronger than B2 was supposed to be, it kind of tells me that Rampage will be off by several more months...just a guess. But clearly the V3000 is aimed at being their retail product, so Rampage out 6 months later follows TDFX's guidelines.
2 months ago I was expecting Banshee to be the fastest 2D and 3D solution...it was not. I am impressed with Banshee's sales (if not TDFX's demand forecasting), but this part merely pays the bills. Retail adds icing on the cake, and V2 is going down at a pretty good clip. And DX6 is out now, and much better than I expected. A lot has changed, and some of it is good- some of it not so good.
I do believe in the company's future- it's just that I thought they would do more in a shorter period of time. Thus my expectations for smash earnings are put off, and I think my money would be better spent elsewhere.
For what its worth, I should have sold my TDFX 2 months (and 2 days) ago- the ~70% return has not been up to snuff with other purchases of that time frame. |
